The Cardinals’ reset likely won’t include a trade for Wilson Contreras or Sonny Gray – both have no-trade clauses and reportedly prefer to stay in St. Louis. Louis – but they will still have big names in the market. Among them could be a third striker Nolan Arenado. Derrick Goold of St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cards will spend the next few weeks evaluating which teams are interested in Arenado and getting a feel for what a trade could be. If anything compelling comes out of those early talks, they’ll go to Arenado about his openness to waiving his no-trade clause for the area(s) in question.
Arenado, who turns 34 in April, is signed for three more seasons and is owed a total of $74MM during that time. The Rockies are on the hook for $10MM of that amount ($5MM in 2025 and $5MM in 2026), which helps make the contract more attractive. The 10-time Gold Glove winner and six-time Platinum Glove recipient is still a great outfielder at the hot corner, but while Arenado is an MVP finalist in 2022, his past two seasons at the plate have been less impressive. He’s still an above-average hitter, but not by a wide margin. Since Opening Day 2023, Arenado owns a .269/.320/.426 batting line (104 wRC+).
Once a perennial threat for 30 to 40 home runs, Arenado has seen his power decline significantly over the past two years. This past season his .123 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) was a career low. His 16 home runs in 635 plate appearances and 152 plate appearances are his fewest as he only hit 10 long balls as a rookie in 2013 (albeit in a small sample of 133 games/514 plate appearances). .
Arenado’s contact skills continue to decline, but even the 15.5% strikeout rate he’s posted since 2023 is up from the 13.2% he’s posted over the past four seasons. He’s never been a hitter at a particularly high clip, but Arenado caught a free pass in 9.1% of his plate appearances from 2016-22 — compared to just 6.8% in 2023-24. This past season’s average exit velocity (86.3 mph), barrel rate (3.2%) and hard-hit rate (31.2%) were all shy of league average and easily career-low numbers.
The decline in offensive output, combined with the relatively weighted salary and non-trade rights of Arenado, all complicate the paths leading to a potential trade. The extent to which that no-trade provision will work is an open question, but there is reason to think that it may not be the barrier that such clauses often are. Arenado’s departure from Colorado was partly due to his frustration with the team’s inability to field a competitive roster. He got a chance to get out of his contract after finishing third for NL MVP in 2022 because he prioritized playing for a contending club and expected the Cardinals to be one.
While an Arenado trade is far, far from a sure thing, there are plenty of teams that will be partial to third base help. Yankees, Mariners, Astros (if Alex Bregman leaves), the Blue Jays, Tigers and Royals all have specific openings at this position. If Pete Alonso signs elsewhere in free agency, the Mets could go Mark Vientos on the first base and enter the third market. The Dodgers don’t need a third baseman but have been linked to Arenado over the years.
If the Cardinals move on from Arenado, it would go well with their offseason goal of opening up playing time for young talent. They have already committed to moving Contreras to first base to create at-bats for the 24-year-old. Ivan Herrera behind the bowl. Dealing Arenado can open reps Jordan Walker in his natural position – his attempts to move from third base to the outfield didn’t play particularly well – either Nolan Gorman. It could also reduce a significant amount of cash on the books in each of the next three years, perhaps allowing the Cards to spend a little more freely when they finally look to exit the current rebuilding effort.
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