Dreams of ‘United States of Europe’ die fast as EU backs down amid illegal immigration

Contrary to popular belief, Europeans have long wanted to emulate America; a group of united states with freedom of movement, a single currency and a unified government. That was the unspoken goal when the European Union was born after World War II. But so far, the dream has failed.

Recently, there has been another blow, which has pushed the idea of ​​a fully integrated political and economic party further into the future than before.

“There has been an awakening that borders protect those inside the borders,” said Ben Habib, former deputy leader of the far-right British political party Reform UK and CEO of First Property Group PLC. “We wouldn’t have a problem with immigration to Europe if we had borders.”

The bloc has grown in size and complexity in the decades since its creation. However, that growth has come with tensions and a lack of cohesion, which has prevented the full political integration of member states. In short, it has been a work in progress, some experts believe that the goal will be seen soon.

Now that president-elect Donald Trump is back in power, the EU may see more pressure, as it prepares for the most illegal immigration deportation in history.

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Donald Trump gestures during a campaign rally at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on November 4, 2024. (CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)

Perhaps on a lesson in the US, the political agenda has taken a step back from freedom of movement across the bloc recently as some EU member states have re-introduced border controls, effectively ending free movement within key parts of the bloc for a while. The countries affected are France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Slovenia, Denmark and Sweden.

Immigrants protest against the government’s decision to tighten immigration policy, in front of the Portuguese Parliament in Lisbon on October 25, 2024. (Patricia De Melo Moreira/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)

Concerns about terrorism, illegal immigration and foreign interference seem to be a big part of this change.

Late last month, France announced it would extend its temporary border checks until April 20, 2025, citing serious threats to public policy, public order and internal security. The country was attacked by terrorism almost ten years back to 2015 with the attacks on the Bataclan theater, Charlie Hebdo magazine offices and others.

Italy, Turin, Piedmont – Dec. 22, 2018: The back of a man wearing a European flag amid a crowd of people from the United States of Europe in Piazza San Carlo. (Stefano Guidi/LightRocket via Getty Images/Getty Images)

Another important reason is the instability of the economy and the labor market throughout the EU, especially the two largest economies, Germany and France, respectively. In the 15 months to June, the former saw no growth in the quarter, with unemployment rising from 5% in 2022 to 6% in September. France had good growth, but unemployment rose to 7.3% in the second quarter, up from 7.1% at the start of 2022.

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France has overtaken Italy as the top budget league. The projected 2025 budget deficit of 5% is seen as overly optimistic, meaning it is likely to be higher, and above the mandated 3% limit.

French police check vehicles to prevent the entry of refugees into the country as vehicles cross the border from Belgium into France, in the Arrondissement of Dunkirk on November 1, 2024. Border controls are being increased in the Schengen area, which is the target. (Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images / Getty Images)

“When Germany needed workers, they opened the gates, and they had a lot of workers,” said Konstantinos Venetis, director of global macro, at GlobalData TSLombard in London. “Now the economy is not going well, and unemployment has increased. There is a tendency of politicians to force.” In particular, the government is looking to deport or prevent undocumented immigrants from working without documents or entering the country.

However, there are problems with introducing boundary testing. It comes at a loss of time, and therefore money, for traveling business executives, tourists and truck drivers, Venetis said. “Anything that takes too much time is not good for the economy,” he said. “Delays mean higher costs.” Anyone who has doubts about this should consider how long transit time is when flying to another country. It can be many hours.

Now, it seems that traveling through Europe, from Spain to Germany, will mean stops at the French-German border. Think how much the costs will increase for the shipping companies; in the end, consumers will pay more.

Some doubt that border stops will do anything to stop terrorist activity. “We often forget that terrorism comes from people who are already settled in the country,” said Daniel Lacalle, an economist at the Madrid-based investment firm Tressis. “It’s basically trying to fix a problem by creating another.”

The flags (LtoR) of Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Great Britain, the United States and Europe are displayed at the G7 International Ministerial Meeting at the Town Hall in Muenster, in western Germany on November 3, 2022. (Photo by Wolfgang Rattay/Pool/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)

Lacalle says what is needed to fight terrorism is not border checks but rather a coordinated European Union police system focused on fighting terrorism. While that would be possible in the US it is very difficult for the EU, which is in many ways a family of countries that want to maintain their sovereignty. That means they have to take it upon themselves to police the house.

What complicates this issue is that this temporary border check may not be temporary. Echoing Ronald Reagan, Lacalle says “There is nothing as permanent as temporary action from the government.” In other words, these border stops are likely to last a long time.

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It seems the European Union knows it needs to change if it wants to emulate the United States. Indeed, last week, the President of the European Council Charles Michel invited EC members to a dinner meeting on November 8. The invitation focused on the need to make the EU work more competitively as soon as possible.

“The situation is very worrying,” the invitation said. “In the last 20 years, the EU’s share of world GDP has halved. We need to act now. The survival of the Union’s competitiveness is at stake.”

Other topics to be discussed include strengthening relations with the US, which the invitation described as “important.” It also addressed bilateral relations, security/state politics, including Ukraine, and global challenges.

Not everyone is depressed or hopeless. “It’s possible that this seventy-year EU job is coming to an end,” said New York-based Marc Chandler, a market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “I have high hopes.” He sees recent financial slowdowns in the bloc’s other major economies, such as France and Italy.

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Since the 1950s, crises have been the driving force behind EU integration, Chandler said. “Seventy years into the EU project and the union is still a work in progress,” Chandler said. “A monetary union, that’s what the EU lacks.” In other words, to move towards integration, government taxation and spending must be integrated across the bloc rather than limited to individual member states.

Still, border checks send a message, Lacalle said. “That does not mean the end of the EU, but it means that the United States of Europe is not possible,” he said.