JOHANNESBURG (AP) — Mozambique has seen protests since the country’s disputed October 9 election results in which the ruling Frelimo party’s candidate, Daniel Chapo, was declared the winner.
About 30 people are reported to have died during the post-election violence which may be high on the agenda of the Southern African Development Community conference next week.
Venancio Mondlane, an independent candidate who came second in the election with 20% of the national vote, is against the election result and has been calling for protests across the country.
Here’s why the post-election violence is worrying the region:
DEEP DEMOCRACY AND BELIEVABLE ELECTIONS
Some Southern African countries are known for holding free and fair elections, with at least two elections in South Africa and Botswana this year.
In Botswana, the ruling party was ousted from power after 58 years and a flawless transfer of power took place within days.
The ruling party in South Africa also lost its majority in Parliament for the first time since 1994 and formed a coalition government with the opposition.
Mauritius held elections on November 10 in which the ruling party was resoundingly defeated. Namibia is expected to go to the polls later this month.
However, South Africa is still facing challenges with disputed elections as Mozambique is the latest.
The European Union monitoring team has suspected irregularities in the October 9 election, including manipulation of some results.
Even in the last election of 2023, the ruling party Frelimo was accused of rigging the votes, an allegation it has denied.
Zimbabwe has also had a number of controversial elections, as its 2023 election was criticized by international observers as being fraught with illegalities and falling short of the country’s constitution.
REGIONAL TRADE AND ECONOMY
Mozambique is an important part of South Africa’s regional trade, sharing borders with South Africa, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Eswatini.
The lack of stability in this country tends to betray the neighbors, most of whom are already facing challenges associated with illegal migration.
South Africa has closed its side of the Lebombo border it shares with Mozambique after recent protests. South Africa uses the port of Maputo in Mozambique to export other goods to foreign countries and the closure of the border has resulted in trucks transporting minerals from the port being blocked.
The South African Transport and Rail Association estimates that border closures cost the South African economy at least R10 million ($555,177) per day the border is closed.
The South African Minerals Council estimates that 53% of South Africa’s chrome ore and concentrate exports by 2023 will be exported through Maputo.
Mozambique is rich in minerals and its discovery of natural gas in 2010 is expected to revive its economy as it looks to engage with its neighbors in the energy sector.
POLITICAL REFLECTIONS
Mozambique is in the shadow of a bloody 15-year civil war between Frelimo and the rebel group Renamo after independence.
The country only had its first elections in 1994 and this was the first vote where there were no armed groups linked to political parties after the disarmament process. It has been fighting an Islamic State-affiliated group that began attacking communities in the northern province of Cabo Delgado since 2017.
About 600,000 of the 1.3 million people who fled have returned to their homes, most of them destroyed communities where houses, markets, churches, schools and health centers were destroyed, the United Nations said earlier this year.
Its neighboring countries are home to many Mozambicans who travel there for work and economic opportunities and any further instability could fuel migration.
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