The focus of the White Sox’ trade efforts this offseason will be all over the place Garrett Crochetand for good reason – he is the first top striker readily available on the market. However, heading into the 2024 campaign, it was Luis Robert Jr. seen as Chicago’s biggest prize in a limited time. Another injury marred the talented but fragile center fielder’s ’24 campaign and added to his reputation as an injury-prone player. The Sox still hope to move Robert, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, but one rival told Nightengale that Chicago’s price is unrealistic, given all of Robert’s health issues.
“You have to hope that in the end he will stay healthy and become the player that everyone has always seen,” said the GM. “But the White Sox pretend to be a big player and ask for your highest hopes.”
Understandably, the Sox were hesitant to trade Robert for less. He’s among the best players in the sport when he’s healthy – he hasn’t been healthy for much of his career. Robert has had six IL placements since the 2021 season, most of which sidelined him for significant time. A hip flexor strain in 2021 sidelined him for more than three months. He missed more than two months last season with the same injury. Robert also suffered a broken wrist, an MCL sprain, and a serious viral infection in 2022 that resulted in blurred vision, dizziness, and lightheadedness.
That high number of injuries seems to have taken a toll on Robert this past season. He went on the injured list a week before the start of the season and came back in June but did not recover. Robert hit five homers in his first 36 career games — but collected one more hit during that stretch. He totaled 396 plate appearances after the injury in 2024 and slashed just .225/.281/.370 with a 32% slugging percentage.
Obviously, that’s not the kind of production that will generate interest for a player who is owed $15MM next season. However, from 2021-23, Robert slashed a combined .287/.331/.511 with 63 homers and 37 steals in just 1292 plate appearances. He played plus-plus defense in center field along the way; despite playing in only 301 games in that three-year span, Robert had 21 Outs Above Average – good for 12th among all major league outfielders. That strong run was headlined by the 2023 campaign – Robert’s age 25 season – where he hit .264/.315/.542 and slugged 38 home runs in a career-high 595 trips to the plate. Robert made the All-Star team, won the Silver Slugger, and drew MVP votes.
That’s the kind of result any team can hope for when they acquire Robert. Unfortunately, while his per-game and per-inning performance from 2021-23 was excellent, that 2023 season was the only one in which Robert surpassed 425 plate appearances. He appeared in only 65.9% of the possible games in his five-year run with the White Sox.
Robert’s 2024 season was not without its silver linings. His average rushing velocity, according to Statcast, came in at 28.8 feet per second — the second-best mark of his career. He’s been down 27.9 ft/sec his first time with a hip flexor strain. His pace slowed considerably this time. And while his defensive grades dipped, that was due to some poor throws. Statcast still overestimates Robert’s range. He also sits in the 84th percentile of MLB hitters in bat speed and tends to hit the ball hard (90.1 mph exit velocity, 40.6% hard-hit rate) on contact. He didn’t make enough contact (career-worst 32.8% rate).
Robert’s contract pays him $15MM next year. There are several similar $20MM club options for the 2026 and 2027 seasons in the deal. Getting the 2021-23 version of Robert over the next three seasons for a combined $55MM would be a steal, even if he spent about a third of that time on the injured list, as he did in ’21-’23. (Both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs agree that Robert was worth about 10.5 WAR during that time, even with missed time.)
The problem for interested parties, of course, is that there is no guarantee he will return to that level of play. Taking a one-year, $15MM flight likely attracts more clubs in need of outfield space, especially as team options come into play. Taking that salary again handing over top class prospects is another matter entirely. From the White Sox’s dominant position, trading Robert to easily remove $15MM in guaranteed money would be foolish. They have no money on the books, with an estimated $75MM, per RosterResource. That’s part of their 2024 payment. Selling Robert low and watching him return to stardom elsewhere would be painful for the Sox and their fans.
It all makes Robert a very difficult player to sell this winter. The Sox have no need to spend the small amount of money left on his contract. Some clubs feel there is little sense in trading top prospects for an injury-prone player coming off a 100-game season that has had little to do with his career.
The obvious result is a mid-season trade. If Robert bounces back, the Sox can move him back to block and effectively market two-plus years of his services. If he continues to struggle, they can move him to make a slow comeback, knowing that his election will likely be bought anyway. Maybe the team can throw caution to the wind and give him a surprisingly powerful offer in the near future, but that seems unlikely. The Sox moved Dylan Cease in spring training where his Cactus League performance calmed some concerns about a pedestrian 2023 season, so it’s possible a big spring from Robert could get some attention. However, he is likely slated to remain with the Sox to open the season, and clubs around the game will look to his early performance. If he shows well in April, Chicago GM Chris Getz he could follow in the footsteps of his Miami teammate Peter Bendix and make Robert available in late April/early May – just like the Marlins did Luis Arraez.
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