Avocados, tequila and other iconic Mexican products have been threatened by Trump’s threats.

URUAPAN, Mexico (AP) – Mexicans are worried that Donald Trump’s threats to impose 25 percent tariffs could affect dozens of iconic Mexican products and threaten the region’s entire economy.

In western Mexico, no crop provides as much income to small farmers as the avocado. But avocado growers, pickers and packers worry that US consumers, who face 25% higher prices, may skip guacamole.

“I think that when the price of any product goes up, the demand goes down,” said avocado farmer Enrique Espinoza. Orchards like his are the economic backbone of the western Mexican state of Michoacan. “It would be a disaster if they close the (border),” he said.

Trump’s inauguration Jan. 20 – when he said he would impose tariffs – couldn’t have come at a worse time: It’s just around the corner when Mexico starts shipping crates of the green fruit north on Super Bowl Sunday, the peak of the year for consumption.

José Luis Arroyo Sandoval, manager of an avocado packing house in Michoacan, says the economy will be affected.

“Our work can be reduced because it will not be so attractive to export,” said Arroyo, “because avocados will be expensive, and avocados are already expensive.”

It may not be only Mexican manufacturers that are affected; US consumers may also be hollering.

Mexican business leader Gina Diez Barroso told a press conference on Tuesday that another US agriculture official told her that she had never had as many complaints as when the US government suspended inspections of Mexican avocados in 2022.

“In his life he has never had so much chaos in his office, because they stopped the Mexican avocados,” said Diez Barroso.

Espinoza agrees that consumers may share the pain.

“Gringos need avocados, it’s a good product, and I don’t think they’ll stop eating it,” he said.

Instead, the opposite effect makes him anxious; if Mexico retaliates with its costs, as President Claudia Sheinbaum has suggested, Mexicans will not face a drop in income, but higher prices for US products such as corn, which is the main source of animal feed in Mexico.

“There are a lot of poor people here, so it’s going to hit us one way or another,” Espinoza said. “The United States can pay 25% more for Mexican products, very few of us have enough money to pay 25% more for what we import into the United States.”

It’s not just guacamole; Mexican tequila producers have seen a bonanza in the American market. In 2023, the US imported $4.6 billion worth of tequila and $108 million worth of mezcal from Mexico.

That has raised cautious concerns among tequila producers, including farmers who grow agave in some of the driest, barren soils that can support many other crops.

“We are analyzing the statements of the authorities and their reactions, and in the coming days we will establish a position,” the National Tequila Industry Chamber said in a statement.

And industry representatives say the decline in the use of tequila – the third most popular spirit in America, behind vodka and pre-mixed cocktails – could affect bars, restaurants and clubs in the US.

“At the end of the day, tariffs on spirits from our neighbors to the north and south will hurt American consumers and lead to job losses in America’s hospitality industry as these businesses continue to recover from the pandemic,” the Distilled Spirits Council of the US said in a statement.

The tariffs could send Mexico into recession immediately. The Mexican financial group Banco Base estimated in a report that for every 1% that Mexican exports increase in price, their volume decreases by 1.33%

Assuming Americans could absorb half the cost impact and simply pay higher prices for Mexican goods, they could reduce their consumption by 12%, Banco Base estimates.

“This will be reflected in a 4.4% decline in gross domestic product,” the bank wrote, adding “the decline will not occur in 2025, but will worsen if inflation continues for a long time.”

And prices can affect certain products that are not considered Mexican at all.

Mexico’s Secretary of the Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, said on Wednesday that 88% of all North American trucks come from Mexico, although it was not clear whether he was referring to truck parts or their final assembly.

Ebrard said the 25% tariffs would mean US buyers may have to pay $3,000 more per van.

“It’s shooting itself in the foot,” Ebrard said.

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