Five Untendered Pitchers to Watch This Winter

Every year, the MLB non-tender deadline sees clubs allow some of their team-controlled players to test the open market early, whether it’s due to rising arbitration costs or the need for more cap space on the team’s 40 players. list. Earlier this evening, we discussed five hitters coming out of this year’s undrafted players who are worth keeping an eye on this winter. Although none of these players can realistically be expected to follow in the footsteps of Cody Bellinger again Kyle Schwarberwith both re-establishing themselves as All-Star-caliber players behind non-tenders, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see this year’s unpaid shortstop emerge as a top player at some point in the future.
The best non-tendered player last winter was a right-hander Brandon Woodruffwho served as the co-ace of the Brewers sideline rotation Corbin Burns years but ended up missing the entire 2024 season as he recovered from shoulder surgery. Kevin Gausman stands out as one of the most popular pitchers to go untendered in recent memory, and the veteran right-hander has continued to have a great career after breaking out at age 29. Gausman went, finding an impact reliever or quality starter in the non-tender pile is unheard of. This past year, both Spencer Turnbull again Tim Hill went from non-tenders in November to contenders for the playoffs in 2024. Is there anyone in this year’s group of non-tenders who could follow in his footsteps? Without further ado, let’s take a look at five pitchers who reached free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and may be worth watching throughout the upcoming season. The players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2025 season in parentheses.
Kyle Finnegan (33)
Finnegan’s tender came as something of a shock, as the right-hander made his first All-Star appearance this year. The righty has been a consistent, solid presence behind the Nationals’ bullpen throughout the rebuild, posting a 3.56 ERA (116 ERA+) overall with a 4.24 FIP and a 23.5% strikeout rate in his 290 innings 1/ 3 employees. . Finnegan has spent most of his time with the club in a closer role, and has collected 88 career goals in 109 chances with an 81% conversion rate. Finnegan’s overall performance this year has almost matched his career norms, as he has posted a 3.68 ERA and 4.24 FIP in 63 2/3 innings of work while accumulating 38 saves in 43 chances this year.
Those frequent save opportunities over the years have boosted Finnegan’s settlement price, and he should have made $8.6MM in his final outing this winter according to speculation from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Aside from the high price tag, another red flag that may have given the Nationals pause about their closeness is the way they’ve dressed throughout the year. After posting a career-best 2.45 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 40 1/3 innings before the All-Star break, Finnegan’s last 24 appearances saw him contribute a 5.79 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and with a strike rate of only 16.4%. Despite that sign of trouble, Finnegan offers late-season experience, consistent results, and a high-90s fastball that should garner plenty of attention this winter.
Hoby Milner (34)
Left-handed relief options are always in demand, and Milner figures to get attention on the free market as a southpaw with previous success in the majors if nothing else, even after the Brewers chose not to tender him rather than pay his projected salary. of $2.7MM for the 2025 season. This is a defensible decision given Milwaukee’s tight budget and Milner’s poor results this year. In 64 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers this year, Milner surrendered a miserable 4.73 ERA which was 11% worse than the league average in ERA+ rating. With the heater failing to break 90 mph, Milner can’t mind his stuff, either.
That doesn’t mean he couldn’t be a valuable contributor to the team’s bullpen, though. As tough as Milner’s 2024 campaign was, the basic numbers were very kind to the southpaw: He struck out 23.9% of hitters while walking just 5.2%, and nearly every advanced metric was as strong as the lefty’s performance this year as he posted. 3.14 FIP, 3.08 SIERA, and 3.15 in both xERA and xFIP. Milner also enjoyed the highest ground ball rate of his career (51.9%), and may have suffered from a shockingly low 58.1% rate. When you look at the three years that Milner spent as a fixture in the Milwaukee bullpen from 2022 to 2024, you paint a picture of a left-handed reliever who could improve a lot of bullpens in the league: in 193 2/3 innings during that time, he pitched. a 3.44 ERA with a 3.14 FIP overall. That record should favor major league offers this winter, even if his lackluster season last year may limit his chances of earning money.
Cal Quantrill (30)
Quantrill makes this list for being the best bet of all non-tenders to make 30 major league starts in 2025. The right-hander found himself out of his former club before the second non-tender deadline. consecutive winter last week. After being drafted by the Rangers in the days leading up to last year’s trade deadline, the Rockies worked to add him to their rotation. That experiment went pretty well, as Quantrill pitched to a solid if unspectacular 4.98 ERA (93 ERA+) with a 5.32 FIP. As bad as those numbers look on paper, given the realities of entering Coors Field they are often consistent with Quantrill’s history as the league’s fifth starter.
The right-hander enjoyed a breakout campaign in the 2020 season split between Cleveland and San Diego, where he pitched to a 2.25 ERA in 32 innings while working out of the bullpen. He was used as the swing man in Cleveland the following year, and continued to dominate as he posted a 2.89 ERA (despite a pedestrian 4.07 FIP) in 149 2/3 innings of work in 2021. From 2022 onward, he established himself as a permanent fixture in the rotation and has been a consistent back-to-back middle arm with a 4.35 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.68 FIP in 80 starts. An average of over 26 starts on the year with a near-league-best ERA should be enough to earn Quantrill a look on a team in need of rotation this year, though it’s also possible the team will be interested in seeing if he can post strong bullpen numbers like he did earlier in his career.
Jordan Romano (32)
Romano was perhaps the non-tender that received the most attention after last week’s non-tender deadline. A two-time All-Star, Romano has been the Blue Jays’ closer throughout their most recent competitive window. From 2020 to 2023, the right-hander posted an impressive 2.29 ERA in 200 2/3 innings of work with a 30.8% strikeout rate and a 3.13 FIP. Among relievers with at least 160 innings in that span, Romano ranks third in ERA behind only him. Devin Williams again Emmanuel Clase. Unfortunately, the wheels completely came off the righty in 2024 as he gave up 10 runs in 13 2/3 innings before undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery to end his season.
As bad as Romano’s 2024 campaign was, it’s hard to imagine him not generating a lot of interest this winter. The right-hander was expected to earn $7.75MM in his final free agency outing this winter, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a similar deal in free agency if more clubs see him as a potential buyout solution. in the ninth inning given his strong numbers and 105 career saves in 113 chances (89% conversational rate). Naturally, Romano’s market will still be hampered to at least some extent by not only his struggles in 2024 but also the questions surrounding his health. While he is expected to be ready for Spring Training and have a regular season after his surgery this summer, some level of clubhouse panic should be expected after any elbow procedure.
Patrick Sandoval (28)
Sandoval is both the youngest player on this list and the one who could find success as a rotation starter or better in the big leagues at some point in the future. The left-hander was traded from the Astros to the Angels in return for a catch Martin Maldonado back in 2018, and the southpaw was in the big leagues the following year. While it took some time for Sandoval to settle into the majors, he found success in half a season of work without a trade in 2021 and was able to build on that in the offseason the following year. In 2022, Sandoval pitched to an excellent 2.91 ERA with a 3.09 ERA in 148 2/3 innings of work. He struck out 23.7% of opponents and combined that with a career-low 47.4%.
Unfortunately, Sandoval’s performance has declined since then. 2023 was a step back for the lefty, as he posted a solid but limited 4.11 pedestrian ERA (109 ERA+) with a 4.18 FIP in 144 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate dropped to just 19.3% that year, while his walk rate increased to 11.3%. Things got worse this year, as he was pitched to a 5.08 ERA in 16 starts before Tommy John surgery in June. That would leave him out of action until at least the second half of 2025, and that layoff combined with Sandoval’s recent poor performance makes the Halos’ decision to part ways with him unsurprising. Still, with Sandoval not scheduled to hit free agency until after the 2026 season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the club snap up the lefty on a two-year deal and be glad he did if he can return to something closer. in his 2022 form once he returns to the mound.
Source link