Fhe saw it coming. The sudden and dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria took place on Sunday after a decade of brutal conflict.
“It took 12 days for the Syrian regime to fall after 13 years of war,” wrote Timour Azhari, Reuters’ Iraq bureau chief.
The Assad family ruled Syria for more than half a century that was marked by brutality, mass arrests of critics of the regime, and other egregious human rights violations.
Rebels declared Damascus liberated on Sunday and Assad fled to Russia. Many Syrians are happy with the news and optimistic about the country’s future. But there are deep concerns about what lies ahead after years of unrest that has left at least 500,000 people dead and displaced nearly 7 million people in the country and sent millions more seeking refuge abroad.
It’s a complex situation, with many branches on the ground and several external actors involved. To better understand what’s going on, here’s a brief background on the key players.
Assad’s regime
Assad, Syria’s longtime president and commander of the Syrian army, is a trained ophthalmologist who succeeded his father Hafez in a contested election after the elder’s death in 2000.
This family has held the presidency since 1971 under the Baath Party. The Assads come from the Alawite minority and their rule has been characterized by their exploitation of the sectarian divide in the predominantly Sunni country and the violent suppression of dissent.
In 1982, the elder Assad launched what became known as the Hama Massacre that killed thousands to quell anti-government protests led by the Muslim Brotherhood. The younger Assad regime was widely blamed for a sarin gas attack in 2013 that killed around 1,400 people and injured thousands more.
Russia
During the Syrian civil war—which began in 2011 after mass protests erupted during the Arab Spring—Assad’s regime was supported by Russia and Iran in fighting various rebels across the country, some of which were allied with other foreign countries. actors including the US and Turkey. Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has repeatedly used its veto power to protect the Assad regime.
I New York Times‘ Anton Troianovski described the ousting of Assad as “one of the biggest problems of the country” during the time of Vladimir Putin, and the analyst told the newspaper that the fall of one of his most important allies could be blamed for at least part of the war in Ukraine. up attention and resources. Assad has been granted “humanitarian” asylum in Moscow.
HTS
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a spin-off from the al-Qaeda-linked al-Nusrah Front, is the Sunni Islamist terrorist group that led the recent attacks and overthrow of Assad. The group is led by founder Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, and has largely controlled Idlib province in northwestern Syria for several years.
HTS was founded after Jolani broke ties with al-Qaeda in 2016. It is considered a terrorist organization by the UN and several countries, including the US, although it has tried to rebrand itself in recent years as a terrorist organization. Jolani has been described as a “pragmatic radical” and has promised to bring about reconstruction and stability after the revolution.
Since taking power, HTS has appointed Mohammed al-Bashir, former head of the civil administration of the rebel group that ruled Idlib (and accused of human rights violations), to lead the country’s interim government until March 1, 2025.
Islamic State
The Islamic State (also known as IS, ISIS, ISIL, or its Arabic abbreviation Da’esh) is an international jihadist group that gained international prominence in 2014, when it conquered large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq. and proclaims the caliphate.
After a long battle with Syrian rebel groups and foreign forces, including the US, IS was defeated in 2019, although the group still operates in pockets across the country.
The loss of power in Syria following the overthrow of Assad is seen by some observers as an opportunity for IS to exploit. The US has carried out a number of airstrikes targeting IS in Syria in recent days.
The SDF
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a Kurdish-controlled coalition of militias formed in 2015, backed by the US, and controls parts of northeastern Syria after fighting IS there. Turkey, which controls parts of northern Syria along its border, opposes the SDF coalition, viewing it as part of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) armed group that Ankara and Washington designate a terrorist group.
After the fall of Assad, the SDF clashed with Turkish-backed rebels in Aleppo province, although the two sides have reached a ceasefire agreement, according to Reuters.
SNA
The Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkish-backed coalition formed from the northern Syrian armed opposition group known as the Free Syrian Army (FSA), collaborated with other rebels including HTS to overthrow Assad.
The SNA’s alignment with Ankara—pursuing not only the fall of Assad but also the interests of the Turkish military, including fighting Kurdish forces—has drawn criticism and accusations of being a proxy for Turkey.
Hezbollah
Assad has long relied on Iran-backed Lebanese Shia militias to push back his forces against the rebels in Syria. But Israel in recent weeks has decimated the group’s leadership in Lebanon, including killing its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, in a bitter two-month battle before a fragile body was set up on November 27.
According to Bruce Hoffman of the Council on Foreign Relations, the fall of Assad is “an existential threat” to Hezbollah as “HTS will disrupt the flow of Iranian weapons and other supplies” to the Lebanese militant group.
Iran
Assad has been one of Iran’s long-time allies, and Iran has supported him both financially and militarily since the start of the 2011 civil war. Days before Assad’s overthrow, however, Tehran began withdrawing its forces from Syria.
Some experts say that when the HTS-led rebel offensive began last month, neither Assad’s Iranian nor Russian backers were willing or able to start a war like they did in 2016. In Russia and Iran, Assad was their man until he wasn’t,” wrote Nicole Grajewski, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank’s Diwan blog.
Nevertheless, Assad’s fall marked a major blow to Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” in the region. But reports suggest that Iran has established a channel of communication with rebel groups.
Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the fall of the Assad regime a “new and wonderful chapter” in Israel’s mission to change “the face of the Middle East.”
Israel has launched airstrikes on its neighbor Syria since Sunday, destroying dozens of soldiers, most of its navy, radar and missile systems. The Israeli government said it was trying to stop “extremists” from gaining access to chemical weapons and heavy weapons.
Israel also delved into the 155-sq. mi. a buffer zone established after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war east of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. “Israel has a long history of seizing land during wars with its neighbors and occupying it permanently, citing security concerns,” according to an Associated Press report.
The US
The US has spoken out against Assad’s rule in Syria since the outbreak of the 2011 civil war and intervened militarily in 2014 to fight, later alongside SDF forces, IS in the country. Former President Barack Obama faced widespread criticism for not pursuing more intervention following a 2013 chemical weapons attack that hit the Assad regime in eastern Ghouta, just outside Damascus. Obama had called the use of chemical weapons in Syria a “red line.”
President Joe Biden called the overthrow of the Assad regime “an important act of justice” but added that it was “a time of danger and uncertainty.” The US currently has about 900 troops in Syria. President-elect Donald Trump, however, said the US should not intervene, writing on Truth Social: “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD NOT HAVE YOUR LAW. THIS IS NOT OUR WAR. PLAY IT. DON’T GET YOURSELF INVOLVED!”
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