Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman held court with the media at this week’s Winter Meetings in Dallas to discuss a variety of topics, which had the brief title of the right-winger’s program. Roki Sasaki. MLBTR was there when Wolfe interviewed Sasaki, the 23-year-old ace of Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines, who is now eligible to interview with every major league team.
Because of his age, Sasaki is under Major League Baseball’s international guidelines; specifically, that means he can only sign a minor league deal and receive a bonus equal to his team’s allocated bonus pool, which has a hard cap. If Sasaki had waited two years to come to the majors, he would have been 25 years old and qualified as an amateur, which would have made him a contract against the natives and the current Dodgers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325MM).
Asked why Sasaki chose to seek a trade now rather than come to the majors as a true free agent in two years — potentially leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — Wolfe said he’s been asked that question by “everyone you can think of.” ” and tried to answer as best he could.
“It is a difficult question to answer. Some of it is Japanese culture. One of them is Roki Sasaki. There are no absolutes in baseball and, in Roki’s eyes, there are no absolutes in life. … He doesn’t take anything for granted. It’s not a complete lock, as some baseball people have thought, that two years from now he’ll get Yamamoto’s contract. Sometimes, baseball doesn’t work. You know, you look at the injury epidemic that pitchers suffer. You may have Tommy John surgery. He has two shoulder injuries. He had a bending injury. Things may not go as you wish.
“Another thing is that it has always been his dream to reach the big stage, since he was a student. He grew up worshiping players like him Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is something he has always wanted to do, and where he is going [the World Baseball Classic] and he was around some of these big league players, it really touched him. He became convinced that ‘this is what I want to do as soon as possible.’”
As for what aspects Sasaki will prioritize in his free agency, Wolfe was vague. He pointed out that he and his client still have to discuss things like this in detail, since for a long time he has been focusing on Sasaki whether he will be sent. Wolfe noted that some teams have already sent Sasaki introductions but personal meetings have yet to begin. Wolfe himself said he has seen “three or four” presentations but added that he expects to add more. .
Wolfe declined to specify which parties had submitted initial submissions or personally reviewed them for his client. Sasaki’s immediate focus will be learning about the teams, organizations and cities he will choose between. He is expected to arrive in the United States this week, and after reviewing presentations from interested parties, Sasaki and Wolfe will host the first round of in-person visits to the center, starting next week. More waves of group tours — perhaps some to the winners’ cities — will take place down the road, but Sasaki also plans to return to Japan for a week or two during the upcoming holidays.
Asked directly if Sasaki might be considering a smaller market, Wolfe said he might be interested but insisted he wasn’t so sure about his client:
“Yes, of course. I mean, I think there’s an argument to be made that a small or medium-sized team might be more beneficial to him, as a slow arrival, coming from Japan and what he’s been through and not having a lot of fun in the media – it could be. I don’t say the will be, but I don’t know how to do it. It might benefit him to be in a smaller market, but I really don’t know how he looks because I haven’t had a chance to talk to him. [at great length].”
Wolfe has spoken out at several points, once unsolicited, about the media coverage of Sasaki in Japan, writing that “in my opinion, it’s a little unfair” and frankly admitting that it can sometimes have a negative impact on the right-hander. :
“There has been a lot of bad press against him because he has expressed his interest in playing in the MLB at such a young age. That is considered very disrespectful in Japan and swimming upstream. There were many things. A lot of people jumped on board, creating false rumors about him and his family, and it hurt his attitude.”
Wolfe also stressed that wherever Sasaki lands, it won’t be a short-term financial decision:
“Because the gap in the bonus pool is very small, my advice to him is: don’t make decisions based on that. The long-term arc of your career is where you’ll make your money, so it’s probably not worth making a short-term decision about that. Consider all factors.”
Sasaki was officially sent to the big league teams on Dec. 9, the 45-day negotiation period for major league clubs began. He will have to have a contract completed by Jan. 23. Wolfe noted that the signing is expected to take place after Jan. 15, so it would be subject to the 2025 international free agent deadline, which begins on that date. While Sasaki’s decision won’t be solely financial, Wolfe clarified that MLB wants to ensure as much of a “level playing field” as possible and ensure that both Sasaki and his former team get the most beneficial deal possible, with the posting becoming official on December 9, giving him the opportunity to extend the -his free agency next year – when all 30 MLB teams will have more international players available.
It’s going to be a tough pill for the Marine Corps to swallow, no matter what. Under the NPB/MLB referral program, former teams of NPB players receive a release payment equal to 20% of the first $25MM contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money after that. In Yamamoto’s case, for example, his former club received a whopping $54.375MM release clause from the Dodgers for agreeing to let Yamamoto go. Since Sasaki will be signing for a hard cap bonus that will be south of $10MM, the Marines will likely receive less than $2MM in release money.
Sasaki pitched in four NPB seasons and pitched 414 2/3 innings of 2.02 ERA ball with a 32.4% strikeout rate and a 5.6% walk rate. Any team that signs him will control him for at least six seasons. He cannot sign an immediate extension following his minor league contract, following attachment 46 of the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, which indicates that any contracts deemed to be in violation of the CBA will not be approved by the commissioner’s office. Wolfe noted that MLB teams couldn’t even promise Sasaki a spot on the big league roster when they signed him, let alone extend him in advance of the deadline.
It’s possible, in theory, that Sasaki could sign an extension later in his young MLB career — probably more than a year or two down the road — but Wolfe pushed back on the idea that they could even be comfortable with that. “If he’s really good, the power will be on our side, so there wouldn’t be much incentive for us to sign a long-term extension.”
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