The Cubs have been extremely active on the trade market this past week, but it appears their latest deal has hit a snag. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score said on the air this morning that the Marlins lefty’s Chicago talks Jesus Luzardo “looked like he was dead” after having a hard push earlier in the week (audio link, Luzardo speaking at the 2:13:45 mark). It’s not clear whether the parties will want to renew the talks, but Levine suggests that a review of doctors on one side or the other would have had a major impact on the negotiations.
One’s natural inclination will be to assume that Luzardo’s medical records are a hindrance, but there is no strong indication that this is the case. It is possible that the Marlins looked at the medical records of one of the prospects who were the focus of the proposed return and did not agree with what they saw.
Luzardo, 27, has repeatedly shown his former power but has not been able to consistently produce results at that level – often due to injury. He posted a 3.48 ERA with a good 28.7% strikeout rate against a sharp 7.9% walk rate in 279 innings since 2022-23 but missed time with an arm strain. Luzardo, who underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect, also spent time on the disabled list early in 2024 due to elbow stiffness. He returned and pitched well — a 3.98 ERA over his next seven starts — only to return to the injured list in mid-June with a lumbar stress reaction that ended his season.
Luzardo has reached major league innings just twice in his career and has started more than 18 games in the majors just once. Including minor league work, he surpassed 100 innings each year from 2021-23, but those were his only professional seasons. His 178 2/3 innings since 2023 is far and away the career high mark.
Durability is a concern though, with prime-year lefties averaging 96 mph on their hitter while boasting both swinging strikeouts and strikeout rates alike. Add Luzardo’s at least average command to the mix, and his potential to emerge as a star is clear. He was a top 100 pick and one of the top prospects in baseball before his debut, after all. However, keeping him healthy has been a difficult task for the A’s and Marlins alike.
Even if it was Luzardo’s treatments that sealed the deal – and again, we decided to do so not know that it is – that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a trade sending him elsewhere. We have seen many instances in the past where one club backed out of a deal based on a player’s medical examination while another club found them acceptable. For example, the Yankees are reportedly trading Jack Flaherty during the summer due to medical issues. The Dodgers were comfortable enough to make the deal and got 10 regular season hits from Flaherty, plus another five in the postseason. Different teams have different limitations, and all considerations are made against the valuation of the players on the other side of the deal.
As for the Cubs and what might come next if Luzardo’s talks aren’t renewed – that’s an open question. Trading of Cody Bellinger cut $25MM of his $27.5MM salary on the books, giving Chicago more flexibility. RosterResource estimates their current cap hit at $174MM, with just over $191MM in cap space. That puts the Cubs about $50MM shy of the starting comfort zone. At least on paper, that leaves room to add almost any free agent without needing to worry about the luxury tax, though Levine strongly pushed back against the idea of Chicago making a run Corbin Burns.
There is a clear need for bullpen help and a strong possibility that the Cubs will jump on the market for some notable late-inning options. History suggests that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer will choose to keep any free agent commitments in the interim. Hoyer has never offered a multi-year contract to an assistant since taking over baseball duties in Chicago. Kirby Yatesan old friend David Robertson again Kenley Jansen they are among the old but still active foreclosure options that may have short-term deals. If the Cubs are willing to break away from their past behavior in the relief market and pursue bigger goals, the names are the same Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman again Carlos Estevez currently at the top of the market.
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