Israel and Turkey Are Building a New Syria on Their Borders

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(Bloomberg) — Syria’s leadership isn’t the only aspect of the country to be changing as a result of this month’s toppling of longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad. The blurring of its borders is also underway — from Israel to the southwest and Turkey to the north.

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Israel’s military wasted no time advancing on Syria after Assad was overthrown by Islamist-led rebels two weeks ago, with troops moving eastward into a buffer zone established by a ceasefire between the two countries 50 years ago. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is wary of a new threat after more than a year fighting Iran-backed groups Hamas and Hezbollah in the region. 

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“Israel will not allow jihadi groups to close that gap and terrorize Israeli communities,” Netanyahu’s office said last week. It described the deployment as temporary until Syria’s new administration – now led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate – implements the 1974 accord, it said.

Turkey has shown a similar urgency in asserting its influence over much of Syria, and US President-elect Donald Trump has called the country a key player in shaping the post-Assad political landscape.

One of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s priorities is to push back the northern Kurdish groups and the PKK, an organization that has long fought for an independent Kurdish region within Turkey.

The Syrian National Army, a group funded and advised by Ankara, has captured two northwestern towns since late November from the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish ally in the US fight against Islamic State. The SNA will now try to take more territory, Turkish officials familiar with the matter said this week.

Erdogan’s ultimate goal is to create a buffer zone along the entire 900-kilometer (560-mile) Syria-Turkey border, though that goal appears difficult to achieve overall. Turkey says HTS supports the disbandment of Kurdish forces, although HTS has not commented publicly.

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Israel’s advance has extended its control over the Golan Heights – a height that has been the focus of international conflict since Israel took it from Syria during the 1967 war.

Before the fall of Assad, Israel controlled about two-thirds of the territory, giving its troops a view of southern Syria between the border and the capital, Damascus, 60 kilometers away, enabling it to monitor the movement of troops. The Golan offers fertile land – the Israelis grow grapes and apples there – and is an important source of water.

While Trump officially recognized Israel’s sovereignty over its Golan Heights during his first term in 2019, the United Nations still considers it a legitimate part of Syria.

Dolan Abu Salah is the head of the council in Majdal Shams, a village in the Israeli-occupied Golan that is home to an estimated 12,000 Druze, a Middle Eastern religious and ethnic group. He said that the community in this area widely accepts the development of the Israel Defense Force, considering it as a necessary security measure.

The fall of Assad “was a source of great joy, for the people here, for the Druze residents of the Golan,” said Abu Salah, 46, in the town, which is located at the foot of Mount Hermon and is surrounded by orchards. But “the creation of a security zone is very important for the communities of the Golan Heights.”

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Asked if Israel’s occupation of the new territory should be permanent, the council leader said it depends on the new Syrian leadership and “the chances of peace.”

“If we see that the new regime is one of the terrorist groups that will set the agenda, the security zone must be permanent,” said Abu Salah.

Majdal Shams was caught in the crossfire between Israel and Iran-backed forces in July, when a dozen children were killed and more than 20 injured in a rocket attack. Israel blamed the attack on Hezbollah, which borders Lebanon’s Golan.

Nabih Al-Halabi, another resident of Majdal Shams who works on solar energy projects, said he is optimistic about a post-Assad Israel-Syria peace deal, but sympathizes with Israel’s wariness.

“I understand their fear – they want to protect their borders,” he said. “They want to make sure about the stability of the new regime in Damascus and whether they will sign the peace agreement.”

Turkey’s role

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Wednesday that “the last thing” the nation wants is to be seen as the last regional power in Syria, even though the government has linked HTS and its leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, with making military gains in the north.

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“We recognize the current administration, the new one, as Turkey’s official partner and international negotiator,” Fidan said. “I think HTS has taken great steps to distance itself from al-Qaeda and Daesh and other critical elements,” he said, using another name for the Islamic State.

Ankara has a strong incentive to secure influence over how Syria is ultimately run. Turkey is hosting more than 3 million refugees from its southern neighbor – a legacy of more than 13 years of war – while Turkish companies will be major beneficiaries if and when post-war reconstruction begins.

“Ankara will look to shape the political and economic situation in Syria to increase Turkey’s interests,” wrote Eurasia Group analysts including Emre Peker. “A positive outcome in Syria for Turkey will help Erdogan to present himself as an influential leader in the world and boost his historically low popularity.”

—Courtesy of Beril Akman and Julius Domoney.

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