Trump Raises Global Politics A Month Before Taking Office

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(Bloomberg) – His second term doesn’t start for a month, but Donald Trump is already sending shockwaves around the world.

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His trade threats helped defuse a cabinet crisis in Canada when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took office. In Europe, fears of tariffs have intrigued governments that are already on the move.

Allied leaders are scrambling to find ways to maintain support for Ukraine as Trump seeks a quick deal to end Russian aggression. The prospect of talks has both sides heading to the battlefield, Moscow using its advanced missiles and Kyiv taking the war to the Russian capital with the assassination of a general.

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In the Middle East, Trump-friendly leaders of Israel and Turkey are scrambling for leverage as Iran, a perennial target of the incoming president, retreats from the failure of its sponsors Hezbollah and Hamas and the sudden fall of the dictator it supported in Syria.

China, which has largely avoided Trump’s post-election social media presence so far, is beefing up its trade defenses ahead of what is expected to be an onslaught from the new administration.

“We’re in the Trump era and we want to do things quickly,” Keith Kellogg, the general Trump has appointed as his special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, told Fox Business on December 18 as he prepared for the first time. trip to the region – even before the opening. “He made promises in the campaign and we will fulfill those promises.”

Although it is unusual for political leaders at home and abroad to rush to get the ear of the incoming president, the extent of Trump’s influence before the inauguration is very large.

“There’s a new light all over the world, not just here,” Trump said in a speech in Phoenix on Sunday.

That came after he warned Panama that the US opposes using the Panama Canal and is concerned about growing Chinese influence over the canal – even saying it may want it back under US control.

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At home, he spent last week leading negotiations on a spending bill to avert a government shutdown. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said policymakers are beginning to weigh in on some of the president’s potential measures, such as tariffs. The US stock market and bitcoin have rallied since the election, something Trump likes to take credit for. President Joe Biden, on the other hand, has disappeared from the stage.

Around the world, the uproar is a taste of what a new Trump term might bring, as the incoming president pushes his “America First” agenda without many of the strokes of his first term. Populist power is on the rise in many countries, and Trump’s allies are challenging party leaders.

Fresh off a tweet storm that has influenced spending debates in Washington, billionaire Elon Musk on Friday turned his attention to Europe, endorsing the far-right AfD party as the only way to “save Germany.”

That earned him a rebuke from embattled Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is facing snap elections in February and his party’s support is falling amid dire economic conditions. Musk stepped up the pressure on Saturday, calling for Scholz to resign after the deadly attack on the Christmas market.

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In the UK, Trump’s rise has boosted Nigel Farage of the Populist Reform UK group, who met Musk at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate last week. UK lawmakers are weighing changing donation rules to keep Musk out.

These figures are likely to be even higher in Ukraine, where Russia’s all-out invasion has been going on for three years and collective support for Kyiv is showing alarming signs.

Trump is not promising to deliver a ceasefire even before he takes office as he did on the campaign trail, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has already withdrawn his previous demand that Russia give up all the land it has seized as part of any world. ceasefire agreement.

Germany’s Scholz held his first direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in two years last month, drawing sharp criticism from Zelenskiy. So far, it has mainly been Hungary’s Viktor Orban – a Putin sympathizer whom Trump likes – who wants to be the mediator.

On Sunday, Trump himself left the door open to meeting with the Kremlin leader, who he said “wants to meet with me as soon as possible.”

Scholz said this month that he is “confident that we can develop a joint strategy for Ukraine.” He has continued to refuse to supply Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles, which violates Biden’s policy – another Trump thinks is a mistake.

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke to Trump by phone and chose Peter Mandelson, a Labor Party veteran and trade expert, as his envoy to Washington. That choice drew criticism from Trump’s former campaign manager, Chris LaCivita, who called Mandelson “a total idiot.”

Trump’s imminent arrival has also pleased Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He aligned himself with Trump, who faces less political pressure than Biden over the death toll from the fighting in Gaza.

Netanyahu also sent troops to Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Turkey, whose leader is another Trump ally, is expanding its reach into Syria with groups it supports.

“All these leaders in the Middle East, they know the former president, who is now the president-elect, they know his party, so it’s kind of a unique moment in history when you have two presidents, and their parties, working on impeachment. at the same time,” Morgan Ortagus, who was a State Department spokesman during Trump’s first term, on Bloomberg Television’s Balance of Power, referring to the Gaza agreement talks.

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In India, Trump’s arrival coincided with a brave Narendra Modi preparing to host Putin for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine. Modi is one of the world leaders Trump has cultivated with compliments and displays of friendship.

China has started something provocative, involving American allies, before the return of Trump – while also preparing the tools of a possible trade war in the form of restrictions on the export of precious minerals to the US and showing a warming of Japan. and India.

“In 2016, there was this constant sense of uncertainty, of alarm,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “There is now a solid data set of how Trump behaved and how other countries behaved in response to him, and what worked well and what didn’t.”

But leaders are learning that carefully crafted strategies to deal with the incoming president don’t always play out as planned.

After Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, Trudeau flew to Trump’s Florida estate to discuss the issue over dinner. He then offered a plan to secure the border to ease Trump’s concerns (although Canadian officials say the number of migrants crossing the border is small).

Trump’s camp touted that as an early victory. “President Trump is already acting as president,” Caroline Leavitt, his incoming press secretary, told Fox Business on Sunday.

For his part, Trump did not give permission and has spent the weeks since the dinner at Trudeau, suggesting that Canada should be the 51st state of the United States and complaining about the trade imbalance between the countries.

Now, Trudeau’s government is in jeopardy after his top boss resigned, citing in his resignation letter disagreements over spending and how to prepare for Trump’s trade war.

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