Trudeau Crisis Exposes Succession Rules for Canada’s Liberals

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(Bloomberg) — The upheaval that threatens to topple Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has members of his political party scrambling to replace him.

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Trudeau is under increasing pressure from members of his ruling Liberal Party to step down after nine years in power. Others have warned that if he stays, they face the prospect of being defeated by the Conservative Party in next year’s election.

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But there is no way to force him out immediately, at least not without a national party conference. For now, the only thing disgruntled members can do is turn off the heat by publicly calling for Trudeau to go — and quietly plotting their favorite replacement.

Trudeau is piecing together his future, according to people familiar with the matter. If he decides to fight on, he will be risking months of resistance from ineffective Liberals.

The party’s infighting will leave the government in limbo at a time when Canada’s economy is under a cloud of uncertainty. Donald Trump enters the White House on Jan. 20 threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on all Canadian goods, a move that could seriously damage the country’s import-dependent economy.

Alternatively, Trudeau could choose to step down and ask the party to appoint an interim leader to lead the Liberals into the next election. But that has its risks: The party will be asking people to vote for them without knowing who the permanent leader is.

That’s why, for some Liberals, the most likely outcome is that Trudeau will announce his resignation and call a snap leadership race to choose his successor. Given Trump’s mindset, the party will be under pressure to act quickly to stabilize the government.

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The winner of that leadership contest will become prime minister, announce a new cabinet – and then have to prepare for elections immediately.

This option comes with its own set of operational difficulties, however.

An Untested Process

Canada’s Liberal MPs have less power to choose or fire their leader than legislators in other countries. Each group has its own rules.

The Liberal Party constitution calls for a vote open to Canadian citizens who are registered party members 41 days before polling day. The format offers an advantage to candidates who can quickly sign up new followers across the country.

The group has almost no membership barriers. There is no longer even a fee to become a registered Liberal, and almost anyone living in Canada can join as long as they are not a member of another party. Trudeau won the last contest in 2013, after joining hundreds of thousands of people. The open membership policy may be a major concern this time around, after an official investigation found evidence of interference in Canadian politics.

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The constitution also contains timelines and requirements that will make it challenging to organize a leadership race on short notice, said John O’Leary, a veteran Liberal who worked at the party’s think tank and on his last two national campaigns.

“The Liberal Party has never examined the existing constitution in the leadership contest,” said O’Leary, who is now working with Crestview Strategy.

For example, the constitution states that candidates for leadership must register 90 days before voting. The party will also have to establish ground rules regarding fundraising, expenses and other administrative matters.

“There is a discussion going on right now, I think, as to how quickly the leadership race can be organized and put together,” he said. “It may take a different constitutional mandate to see something happen sooner than other timelines have been set.”

There is one section of the constitution that allows the party’s executive committee to change the date of the leadership vote and to “alter any arrangements already made,” if necessary, due to unforeseen circumstances. This could allow for an accelerated race, O’Leary said, although last-minute changes also open the team to legal challenges.

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Time to Buy

The problem is that the government has the sword of parliament hanging around its neck. Because the Liberals do not have a majority of seats, if the three main opposition parties vote against them on a major measure – such as the budget bill – the government will fall, and the election will start immediately.

Last week, Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the New Democratic Party, pledged to vote no confidence in the government during the next parliamentary session. So far, NDP lawmakers have sided with the Liberals in key votes to avoid an election.

However, the fall of the government has not yet come. Parliament is on its winter break, not scheduled to return until January 27. Even then, the government can use various laws and conventions to delay the vote of confidence. Yaroslav Baran, who was a senior official in the last Conservative government under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, estimated that the Liberals could go until the end of March before facing such a vote.

If needed, Trudeau has another tactic to use. He can ask the governor-general, who represents the king in Canada, to prorogue parliament — essentially a temporary suspension of the legislature — to allow the Liberals time to change the formal leadership.

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Trudeau may also try to negotiate a new deal with Singh or Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet to keep his government alive. But his political capital has never been so low.

If Trudeau and his inner circle finally decide that the leadership race is too difficult to pull off in such a tight time, he will either have to fight the election with a divided party, or go and ask the Liberals to appoint an interim leader.

The Liberal constitution states that the successor will be chosen by the party’s board of directors, in consultation with its elected members.

In this case, the role may fall to Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, a veteran cabinet minister and Trudeau ally who replaced Chrystia Freeland after she resigned in Dec. 16. He is now Trudeau’s number 2.

However, at least one elected member has publicly endorsed Freeland, saying he is “ready to lead immediately.” Before he left the Cabinet, he was also the Deputy Prime Minister.

Other members of the cabinet who have been mentioned as future leadership candidates include Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, and Transport Minister Anita Anand.

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