The Diamondbacks agree to a free agent right-hander Corbin Burns to a six-year contract worth $210MM, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Client Boras Corporation will get an exit following the 2026 campaign.
The news is a shocking turn of events as Burnes has garnered a lot of interest in free agency but has not been linked to Arizona at any point in the offseason. While other rumored right-handed pitchers like the Yankees and Red Sox have turned to other front-of-their-rotation options for signings. Fried Max and trading with Garrett Crochet respectively, a number of known interest groups remained in the mix. That includes not only the Orioles in the mix but also the big-market Giants and Blue Jays, both of which USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports have given Burnes the upper hand. Nightengale notes that the state of Arizona has a much lower tax rate than California or Ontario, Canada. In addition to that financial incentive, Burnes is a resident of Scottsdale, AZ who will certainly appreciate the opportunity to stop close to home.
Not to be ruled out as a factor in Burnes’ decision is the possibility of an exit. It’s not clear yet whether the right-hander’s other offers have given him that flexibility, and until the full financial breakdown of the deal is available it won’t be entirely clear how much money Burnes will leave on the table by opting out. If the $210MM guarantee is spread evenly across the six seasons of the deal, however, it’s not hard to imagine Burnes exceeding the $140MM guarantee after his age-32 campaign as long as he continues to play at his current, ace-caliber level. level. Earlier this offseason, Blake Snell he received a $182MM guarantee from the Dodgers before his age-32 season, and a look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker bears that out. Zack Greinke, Max Scherzeragain Jacob deGrom all signed nine-figure free agent contracts before their 32-year or older campaigns.
Going back to the contract Burnes recently signed, however, the deal falls short of Burnes’ previously reported goal of matching the $245MM guarantee the Nationals are offering the righty. Stephen Strasburg during the 2019-20 offseason. With absolute certainty, the contract actually sits in roughly the same ballpark as the seven-year, $200MM MLBTR forecast we made earlier in the season as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, with Burnes ranked second in the class behind. only Juan Soto. A closer look at this deal reveals that Burnes followed in the footsteps of almost every other pitcher this winter and made a deal that exceeded expectations. The deal’s $35MM annual value exceeds the $28.57MM AAV predicted by MLBTR and is similar to Strasburg, while the opt-out gives its value in the form of flexibility as previously mentioned.
For the Diamondbacks, it’s more money than Greinke’s aforementioned six-year, $206.5MM deal for the biggest guarantee in franchise history. Setting a club record for total guarantees in free agency would be remarkable for any club, but it’s especially surprising from an Arizona team that previously indicated it planned to make the 2025 payroll nearly the same as its 2024 cap. As noted by RosterResource, Arizona spent just $173MM in payroll in 2024 and after signing Burnes is expected to be paid $194MM in 2025. just last year’s payroll. It’s no secret that the club is trying to move from the left Jordan Montgomery on the trade market this winter, but even if the club were able to clear a large chunk of his salary they would still be putting themselves in financial limbo by signing Burnes.
That doesn’t mean the risk is a poor one to take, of course. Burnes established himself as one of the league’s best starters with Milwaukee during the shortened 2020 campaign, where he finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting. He followed that performance up with a breakout and award win the following year, and the four-time All-Star has been on the short list of the game’s top swing arms ever since. Over the past five seasons, Burnes ranks fifth among professional MLB starters in innings pitched, second in fWAR, fourth in ERA, sixth in FIP, and third in strikeouts. Of course, much of that is due to an outstanding 2021 season that saw Burnes lead the sport in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.69), and strikeout rate (35.6%).
Some red flags have appeared in the right-hander’s profile since then, as he has started to go deeper into games due to the dominance of the base level. His fastball velocity is nowhere near what it was during his Cy Young campaign, and his strikeout rate has dropped over the past five seasons to a league-leading 23.1% this year. On the other hand, that walk rate started to bounce back late in the season, when he struck out 27.7% of the opponents he faced in September. While he hasn’t quite matched the dominance of his otherworldly 2021 campaign in the years since, his 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 590 innings over the past three seasons still establish him as a starter who can clearly target a playoff-caliber rotation.
He’ll be tasked with doing just that in Arizona this year, as the Diamondbacks appear complete after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2024 despite winning more games than the 84-win 2023 club that managed to defend the NL pennant. Burnes will pair well with the long time club ace Zac Gallen at the front of the circuit, and veterans Merrill Kelly again Eduardo Rodríguez increasing in the middle. Brandon Pfaadt again Ryne Nelson represent interesting options at the back of the clubhouse rotation, as will Montgomery if he is not traded before the start of the season. Overall, the club’s lineup is among the strongest in the league right now on paper and should help shore up an offense that has lost both. Joc Pederson again Christian Walker free agency this winter. The front office changed the trade to land a first baseman Josh Naylor hoping to help plug that hole, but the club still seems likely to lean too much on its inner youth as Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomoand high hopes Jordan Lawler at the plate in 2025.
It is unclear what awaits the Diamondbacks this winter due to their unprecedented payroll commitments. The club has been known to pin after help behind its bullpen this winter, via trade Ryan Helsley or signing Kirby Yates among the things the club is reportedly considering. Another hitter would also make sense for the club after losing Walker and Pederson to free agency, preferably a right-handed bat to go along with a more left-handed team. That being said, the club likely won’t have room to make a significant move without shelling out the first salary in the form of Montgomery or another potential trade candidate.
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