As Trump approaches, Pakistan grapples with foreign policy challenges in 2025 | Donald Trump News

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan entered the new year in a state of calm after 30 months of turmoil, marked by volatile politics, controversial elections, and a looming economic recession.

With domestic politics stabilizing and the economy hopeful of a turnaround in South Asia’s second most populous country, foreign policy and security challenges are likely to emerge as the country’s top concerns this year.

Analysts predict a difficult 2025 for Pakistan, as it manages relations with its closest neighbors, allies and enemies around the world, as well as the United States, where Donald Trump will return to power later this month.

Most of Pakistan’s foreign policy and security challenges arise from its immediate surroundings, particularly Afghanistan to the west and India to the east.

Militant and insurgent violence escalated across Pakistan after the Afghan Taliban seized Kabul in 2021. In 2024, armed attacks claimed the lives of nearly 700 law enforcement officers, making it one of the deadliest years in the country of 240 million people.

The attack was carried out mainly by the Pakistan Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP), an armed group that considers the Afghan Taliban its ideological twin. Separate insurgent attacks have targeted sites related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the $62bn megaproject that has brought Islamabad and Beijing closer than ever as political and economic allies.

Christopher Clary, a fellow at the Stimson Center, a US-based non-profit organization, and an associate professor of political science at the University at Albany, says Pakistan is facing the “most difficult” national security challenge “in at least a decade and possibly more.” since the 1990s”.

“Pakistan has no good choice but to put its economic house in order and mend its relations with other major powers and regional neighbors. This could take years of work, and it’s not clear that Pakistan has years to do that work before the house collapses,” Clary told Al Jazeera.

Here is a breakdown of the countries that will be the focus of Islamabad’s foreign policy this year:

China

Pakistani authorities often express their friendship “deeper than the sea, taller than the mountains” with China. But 2024 revealed cracks in that relationship.

Attacks on Chinese citizens and interests have escalated, prompting a rare public reprimand from Beijing’s embassy in Islamabad. “It is unacceptable that we were attacked twice in just six months,” Jiang Zaidong said at an event in Islamabad in October.

Muhammad Faisal, a foreign policy expert in China, warns that although China will continue to provide financial assistance to Pakistan, any expansion of the CPEC project in the country is unlikely.

“Pakistan must be able to cope with the growing pressure from Beijing to find a ‘Cohesive Security Approach’, which places Chinese security personnel on Pakistani soil, which will make them vulnerable to military forces imposing existing security measures,” Faisal told Al Jazeera.

Chinese troops running state projects on Pakistani soil would represent an acknowledgment of Islamabad’s security failures, increase the risk of Chinese civilians being targeted, and increase the politically sensitive possibility of Chinese fighters killing Pakistani civilians.

Meanwhile, experts also fear that Trump’s anti-China stance could push Beijing to seek public support from Pakistan, which would then be forced to walk a tightrope to avoid upsetting Washington, an old ally.

Trump has taken an uncompromising position on China, in his first term he sees a trade war between the two economies. In his second term, the American leader promised to impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese imports.

“But since Pakistan is not at the top of the international agenda of the Trump administration, there is a strong line. However, uncertainty is a common feature of both Pakistan and China’s challenges,” said Faisal.

Kamran Bokhari, executive director at the US-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, said China’s frustration with Pakistan stems from the huge investment in CPEC that brings few benefits. He added that China’s predicament could work to the advantage of the US.

“China is already disappointed with Pakistan and relations have been good for a long time. But Beijing is in a good position because it is knee deep in Pakistan, due to CPEC investment in billions, without getting any profit from it. So, China’s presence in Pakistan is good for the US,” Bokhari told Al Jazeera.

the United States

Pakistan’s relationship with the US dates back to its independence from British rule and emergence as a new nation in 1947. But the Islamabad-Washington relationship is more focused on how Pakistan helped US policies in the region, especially in Afghanistan, where the Soviets are attacking. in the 1970s and 1980s, or the US-led “war on terror” following the 9/11 attacks in 2001.

With the Afghan Taliban returning to power in Kabul, the Pakistan-US strategic relationship in the South Asian region has weakened. Although the US is now less invested in Afghanistan, Pakistan has gradually moved towards China for economic, military and technological needs.

Hassan Abbas, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington, DC, believes that Pakistan must “carefully manage” its relations with the US amid tensions between China and India. He says that “despite the apprehension” on Pakistan’s part, major changes in the relationship seem unlikely.

“Security issues and regional challenges, such as instability in Afghanistan,” Abbas told Al Jazeera, “are likely to dominate bilateral cooperation.” Abbas is also the author of The Return of Taliban: Afghanistan after the Americans Left.

Bokhari said Pakistan remains a priority for the US, which has more pressing global issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war and several conflicts in the Middle East to resolve.

“Currently, I do not see the tension rising to significant levels between the two countries and Pakistan is playing its cards safely. In DC, the perception of Pakistan is that it is a weak, chaotic country that needs to get its own business before anything else,” he said.

India

India remains a major foreign policy dilemma for Pakistan.

Although limited engagement takes place in international forums, the relationship has been around for years. Tensions in Kashmir have also escalated after New Delhi stripped Indian-administered Kashmir of its limited autonomy in 2019, prompting strong condemnation from Pakistan. Both India and Pakistan control parts of Kashmir, but claim the Himalayan region as a whole, making it one of the world’s longest and bloodiest military conflicts.

“The asymmetry with India is becoming more and more prominent, and Pakistan has few options to force India to take it seriously that does not jeopardize some of Pakistan’s foreign policy objectives,” analyst Clary told Al Jazeera, adding that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “has little vision .” interest” in dealing with Pakistan and “finds it unreasonable during a period of domestic instability” in Pakistan.

Abdul Basit, Pakistan’s former ambassador to India, views the Kashmir issue as a continuation of the deadlock that needs to be negotiated behind the scenes. “India shows no willingness to be flexible after the constitutional amendment,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to the Modi government’s repeal of Article 370, the law that granted Indian-administered Kashmir partial independence.

As India approaches the West, especially the US, over their common enemy in China, Basit thinks that Islamabad must find ways to cooperate with New Delhi.

Otherwise, we will continue to go from one chaos to another and we will not be able to risk our relationship to build a normal relationship. That to me is the crux of the matter when it comes to India,” said the retired envoy.

However, Bokhari of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy thinks that it could be India that is likely to be on the US road this year and find itself under pressure from its rivalry with China.

“India has very close and active relations with Iran, where it is building a port. It also buys oil from Russia, which is fighting in Ukraine. So they are [India] they were more likely to be put under pressure by the entrants [Trump] administration,” he said.

In order for Pakistan to attract the attention of the US, according to Bokhari, it should offer a number of strategies as it did during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and during the US wars after 9/11.

“If you want the attention of the US, you have to give them something that will generate the most interest in the US, and that’s the only way you can get attention,” he said. “It wasn’t that the US liked Pakistan or became close friends, it was that Pakistan provided a purpose.”

Iran

The year 2024 was a disastrous year for Iran, as it saw its national interests in the Middle East suffer major losses and Israel even launched direct attacks on its territories several times.

But the year began when Iran launched an offensive in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, citing an armed group called Jaish al-Adl as a security threat to its border areas. The attack prompted immediate retaliation by Pakistan. But tensions between the mainly Muslim neighbors did not grow, with Tehran turning to diplomacy to resolve the issue.

Umer Karim, a researcher at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, foresees an “uncomfortable rapprochement” going on, and the emergence of new challenges with Trump’s return to the White House.

Karim warns that the deterioration of relations between Pakistan and Iran could worsen border security, emboldening Baloch separatists who are reportedly hiding in Iran. Baloch rebels have been fighting for a separate state for decades.

“Pakistan will pursue good relations with Iran to avoid tensions amid growing domestic violence,” Karim said.