Over the past decade or so, European governments have been trying to counter the subtle influence of adversaries such as Russia and China.
Now they have a very different challenge: Defending Elon Musk’s and Donald Trump’s MAGA movement’s blatant attempts to take over the space, oust elected leaders and empower far-right causes and groups.
Even before he took office again, Mr. Trump is making threats – maybe serious, maybe not – to get space for NATO allies like Canada and Denmark. And Mr. Musk, a major financial backer of the president-elect, is using his social media platform X to bring the far-right Alternative for Germany party to the mainstream and anoint the leaders of Britain’s centre-left Labor Party.
It is not yet clear whether the European immune system has the antibodies to defend against this new attack.
This is not the first time Trump’s ally has tried to build a bridge with the European far right. In 2018 and 2019, Trump adviser Stephen K. Bannon held meetings with far-right politicians across Europe. But the political situation is now very different. The German and French governments have fallen; right-wing parties are gaining ground in those countries, and are already in power in several others across the continent.
A senior official from Trump’s first administration, who will play a major role in the second, was blunt in his assessment: Europe, he said, does not know what is coming.
‘The richest man who expresses his opinions’
Mr. Musk used a $250 billion slice of his $400 billion fortune to help Donald Trump get re-elected. He was arguably the most influential in US politics through his popularity and ownership of X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.
He campaigned hard for Kamala Harris (at one point he shared a fake video describing himself as a “different recruiter” who “doesn’t know the first thing about running a country”) and interviewed Trump live from the podium. Now he is sending the same playbook to Europe.
In Britain, Mr. Musk revived the decade-old “gangs” scandal that emerged when Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who heads the centrist Labor Party, was head of public prosecutions.
Fanning the flames of the right-wing media, Mr. Musk called Mr. Starmer says he is “absolutely despicable” and says he should be “jailed.” Last week he asked his 212 million followers to vote “America should free the British people from their brutal government.”
According to British media reports, Mr. Musk is also considering donating $100 million to Britain’s far-right Reform Party, which would be the country’s largest political donation. The party’s leader, Nigel Farage, one of the biggest Brexit campaigners, has met Trump several times, most recently at Mar-a-Lago last month.
“MAGA hates Starmer,” a former Trump administration official told The Times. He spoke on condition of anonymity to express his views while being considered part of Trump’s second term administration.
“MAGA loves Meloni,” he added, referring to Italy’s far-right prime minister, Giorgio Meloni, “as long as he achieves his ouster goals.”
Mr. SpaceX Musk is also negotiating with the government of Ms. Meloni to provide secure military communications through the Starlink satellite network. In a press conference last week, Mr. Musk as “a very rich person who expresses his ideas.”
‘Musk is getting used to us’
In Germany, where there will be an emergency election next month, Mr. Musk is encouraging voters to vote for the AfD, giving it a long-denied legitimacy for the group that is being monitored by Germany’s domestic intelligence service for its links to the party. the neo-Nazis.
In an opinion piece for a major German newspaper published on December 28, he called the AfD the last “spark of hope” in Germany. The country, he said, is “on the brink of economic and cultural collapse.”
On Thursday he broadcast live a 75-minute interview with Alice Weidel, the AfD’s candidate for chancellor, on X, giving her the same platform he gave Trump five months ago.
Since Musk began endorsing the AfD in December, Weidel’s posts on X have resurfaced, in part because Musk reposted them, and many neo-Nazi accounts have been restored and amplified. Researchers watching the scene online say German far-right activists are now tweeting to X in English to get Musk’s attention.
Germans will not vote for the AfD just because an American billionaire asks them to. But social media is a tool that can shift public opinion, taking ideas that were once considered extreme and mainstreaming them over time.
What caused the AfD to come out of power despite being the second most popular party in the country, was the violation of laws throughout the country that are not compatible with working with opposition parties. The memory of Hitler, who formed an alliance with centrist conservatives, has so far kept this firewall in place.
“The firewall between the AfD and the White House is officially down and that makes the German firewall look stupid,” AfD leader Tino Chrupalla told me. “Musk makes us normal.”
Overt vs. Covert
US influence campaigns in other countries are not new. During the Cold War America supported friendly nations and groups and intervened – sometimes violently – in countries seen as ideological enemies.
But now the MAGA organization seems to be deliberately sowing discord among America’s allies. That is puzzling to Europeans who grew up learning American lessons about democracy after World War II.
“I don’t remember a similar case of meddling in the election campaign of a friendly country in the history of western democracy,” said Friedrich Merz, leader and chancellor candidate of the Christian Democrats. His party is leading in the polls but will need a coalition to form a government.
The United States remains the main guarantor of European security as the war in Ukraine has shown. It is also Europe’s largest export market, making tariff opportunities a powerful threat to the European economy. And Europe doesn’t have technology companies on par with those coming out of Silicon Valley, including Mr. Musk X and his Space X satellite company.
Europe’s dependence on Russian power has long affected its response to Kremlin interference. But the dependence is much greater in the case of the United States.
Add to that the fact that the American intervention is not hidden, it happened in broad daylight, which makes the fighting very difficult.
Using existing complaints
Influence campaigns work best when they tap into existing grievances. As in the United States, Europe’s reliance on institutions declined after the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic. Voters have become more hostile about immigration and more concerned about the cost of living and the economy. There is a growing sense that centrist leaders on the left and right have failed on these issues.
Millions of people in Europe are angry at the institution, says Matthew Goodwin, a conservative writer and author. “It’s not planned by Trump or Musk.”
“Musk hasn’t created the AfD,” Mr Goodwin said. “It helps the AfD to get attention but the core of this is the policy choices made over the last decade.”
The irritation of Mr. Musk in Europe may be made for greater upheavals rather than electoral success. In Britain, he dismissed Nigel Farage, leader of the far-right Reform Party, after Mr. Farage refused to accept the request of Mr.
“Both the Kremlin and the forces around the libertarian-authoritarian camp around Musk want to sow chaos in Europe and destroy the free people of democracy,” Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin, told the German outlet Die Zeit. . “We have to equip ourselves for that. But the greatest danger to our democracy comes not from without but from within. Those fighting the election campaigns must focus on the problems affecting the voters.”
Similar levels of fighting and chaos exist within the wider MAGA movement. Back in the United States, there are signs that those in Mr. Anti-immigration Trump is tired of Mr. Musk, especially after the controversy over whether the country should expand work visas for highly skilled immigrants. In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera on Sunday, Mr. Bannon called Mr.
Whatever the direct impact of American interference on the European political map in the coming years, Trump is determined to impose his priorities on Europe regardless of who is in government.
“At the end of the day, Trump is going to be so aggressive with Europe about standing up for the American position so consistently that it doesn’t matter who’s in charge,” a former Trump official said. “The important thing is America First. Everything else is a distraction. Trump will use American power to get his way. “
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