China’s auto export growth is expected to slow to 5.8%, reaching 6.2 million this year, a sharp decline from the 19.3% projected in 2024, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
The predicted decline comes against the backdrop of a slight increase in car sales in China, where the policy is expected to drive demand.
Slower export growth is due to a number of factors, including a drop in European Union tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs).
Last year, electric car exports fell by 10.4%, which is in stark contrast to the 80.9% increase seen in 2023. Meanwhile, exports of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) increased by 190%, as automakers turned to these models in response to higher prices for EVs.
In response to the EU’s increased tariffs, China has advised its automakers to cut back on major investments in European countries that have imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, Reuters reported in October.
At the same time, Chinese automakers are adjusting their strategies by focusing on consolidated exports to Europe as a way to counter higher EV prices.
Auto sales in China are expected to rise 4.7% to 32.9 million units this year, followed by a 4.5% increase in 2024, according to CAAM data.
However, the agency predicts a decline in sales growth for new energy vehicles (NEVs), including EVs and plug-in hybrids, to 24.4% in 2025 from 35.5% last year.
CAAM CEO Xu Haidong stressed that the extension of the car trade subsidy to 2025 is likely to be a major driver of growth.
However, he also pointed out that weak domestic demand, intense competition, and growing external pressures could have a negative impact on the auto market.
“China’s auto export growth delayed to 2025: CAAM data” was originally created and published by Just Auto, a subsidiary of GlobalData.
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