At yesterday’s Fenway Fest fan event, the Red Sox’s hopes were high Roman Anthony again Kristian Campbell stated that they have not heard anything from the team about the possibility of signing long-term extensions in Boston until now. Today, a report from Alex Speier of the Boston Globe conveys that while the Red Sox have not yet reached out to begin extension negotiations, the team is nonetheless interested in exploring the possibility of their top prospect.
Namely, Speier lists Anthony, Campbell, and other top infield prospects Marcelo Mayer all as minors the club hopes to speak with. Campbell, in particular, has made it clear that he would be interested in negotiating if the Red Sox approached him. Speier notes that the club’s 2023 fourth-round pick told reporters last season that he would be “100 percent” open to a long-term deal with Boston and also reports that Anthony appears willing to “at least listen” to the Red Sox. they should have approached him about signing a long-term extension.
All three youngsters bring significant pedigree. According to Baseball America, Anthony is the top hitter in all of baseball, with Mayer sitting just behind him at #10 and Campbell clocking out at #24. MLB Pipeline, on the other hand, has all three youngsters in the top 10: Anthony is ranked #3 behind overall. Dylan Crews of the Nation and Walker Jenkins For the Twins, while Mayer comes in at #7 and Campbell rounds out the trio at #10. The performance of three players on the field often supports those standards, too. Campbell went through three levels in the minors in 2024, hitting .330/.439/.558 along the way, while Anthony hit .291/.396/.498 at the Double- and Triple-A level on the year the past. Mayer was limited to just 77 games in Double-A due to injury last year but still hit a solid .307/.370/.480 at the level in his age-21 season.
Preseason extensions for players with that level of expected pedigree are rare but happened last winter between the Brewers and an outfielder. Jackson Chouriowho was ranked as the #2 prospect in baseball by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline at the time of the deal. Chourio ended up signing an eight-year extension last season that guaranteed him $82MM with club options and incentives that could allow the deal to reach $142.5MM over ten years. Chourio’s extension seems like it would be a reasonable sign for Anthony if he ends up signing a deal before he hits the big leagues, given that level and Anthony’s status as a similar five-tool player who projects to be a corner at the major league level.
On the other hand, Campbell and Mayer may not be in line for paydays at that rate. Tigers player Colt Keith he landed on the other end of the pre-arbitration extension spectrum when he signed a six-year deal last winter. That contract guarantees Keith just $28.6425MM and will climb to $82MM over nine years if the Tigers pick up the three club options they hold personally on the youngster’s services. Before the 2024 season, Keith was ranked as a consensus top 30 prospect in the game but did not crack the top 20 by any major. That reduces Keith’s usefulness as a point of comparison to Campbell and Mayer, if both are rated as top 10 prospects at at least one major league position.
Keith also falls further down the defensive spectrum than Campbell and especially Mayer. He was limited to second and third base throughout his time in the minor leagues while both Red Sox pitchers spent most of their time in the minors in the minors. While Campbell has mixed work at second base and outfield as well as manager Alex Cora it was suggested by reporters (including Christopher Smith of MassLive) yesterday that the club plans to have Mayer start playing second and third base in addition to shortstop this year, the ability to play shortstop and a strong pedigree seems likely to allow both Red Sox players to succeed. set their asking prices reasonably higher than Keith’s deal.
Of course, it’s also possible that the Red Sox could wait to extend one or more of the three until they’ve already cleared the majors. Speier notes that the club expands the resource person Ceddanne Rafaela back in April in an eight-year, $50MM contract for more than 100 plate appearances in his major league career. That deal could reach $62MM over nine years, but it’s on the low end of deals signed during a player’s career in recent years; only Aaron Ashby‘s $20.5MM extension with the Brewers that guaranteed little a half-decade ago. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows how quickly a player’s asking price can rise once they get major league service time. Julio RodriguezThe $210MM guarantee with the Mariners is a pretty big deal, though Go Franco, Corbin Carrollagain Ronald Acuña Jr. are among other extensions signed under a year of major league service that exceed the $82MM guarantee Chourio secured from the Brewers last season.
Given how quickly the price of an extension can rise once a young star starts to prove himself at the big league level, it’s easy to imagine that the Red Sox are very motivated to see if an agreement between the two sides can be reached in the coming months. . That said, the club has shown a willingness to extend players over time and in their careers. The Boston brass is already known to have started negotiations with the left Garrett Crochet in terms of a possible extension there are two years left before free agency, and the club has already been extended Xander Bogaerts again Rafael Devers in nine-person deals before their final seasons before being granted free agency.
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