I Roki Sasaki the chaos is over. Several teams have reportedly been told they won’t sign the right-hander and now ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are three. The Cubs can’t run anymore, according to Mike Rodriguez, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic adding that the Cubs have been informed of their situation.
It seems that today is the day that Sasaki and his managers started to inform the teams that have been eliminated from the race. Earlier today, various reports indicated that the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Diamondbacks will not sign Sasaki. The Mariners were clearly linked to Sasaki at times and were clearly not finished, but it seems they didn’t make the podium as one of the top three.
Sasaki’s decision was one of the biggest wild cards to hang in a while. Coming to the major leagues before his 25th birthday, he is considered a rookie under MLB rules and therefore subject to the international bonus pool program. As such, no club could be initially released simply for economic reasons, as is often the case with other free agents.
Each team receives an annual pool of money that they are allowed to spend on international players. This year’s pools are $5-8MM, and the smaller market clubs are mostly larger. Teams can trade for more pool space but cannot increase their starting quota above 60%. The transfer fee will be owed to Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s former club in Japan, although that will only add 20% of the bonus. As such, each party has the same ability to pay Sasaki a few million dollars.
So Sasaki is likely to decide based on more than money. After all, if money was his priority, he would probably wait until he was 25 years old. Yoshinobu Yamamoto he did, leading to a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.
No one can say for sure what Sasaki’s priorities are, although the Dodgers and Padres have been seen as reasonable partners for a while now. Both clubs are on the West Coast, which is close to Japan, perhaps a good thing considering Sasaki’s flights with his family members. The Dodgers also have a solid reputation overall, having made the postseason each year going back to 2013, with a new World Series victory in 2024. The Padres don’t have the same record of success but have been good in recent years.
Both clubs have Japanese players on the roster, with the Dodgers having Yamamoto and Ohtani, and the Padres Yu Darvish. Some reports have suggested that Sasaki and Darvish have a very close relationship.
The Jays have been floated as a much smaller landing spot for Sasaki than the Dodgers or Padres, which makes sense. There are none on the West Coast. They had a strong rivalry from 2020 to 2023 but came off a down season. They had it Yusei Kikuchi until last year’s trade deadline but currently they don’t have a Japanese player on the roster.
In April 2023, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that “Some Japanese players are uncomfortable being major league teammates with other Japanese players because of the importance of seniority in Japan’s hierarchical culture, major league managers and agents say.” That clip explored the possibility of Ohtani pitching with the Mets while they still have them Kodai Senga in the list. Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe downplayed the importance of the club having Japanese players on its roster, good or bad. “That was not the topic of conversation,” Wolfe said last month, per ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez.
It is possible that Sasaki will be attracted to play in another country for other reasons. Wolfe suggested that the Japanese media tend to be unkind to Sasaki, which may have made him stand out in a smaller market. Toronto isn’t exactly a small market but it will be far from the American media spotlight. The Blue Jays are also owned by Rogers Communications, a media company that broadcasts the club’s games on television and radio. Perhaps that would allow the Jays to offer Sasaki a more scrutinized spot in terms of media access. Toronto is also a city with a reputation for diversity and relatively low crime rates.
Those are all speculative arguments, but the same can be said about Sasaki’s arguments for choosing Los Angeles or San Diego. Sasaki and Wolfe have given very few clues about what will be used to make the final decision, leaving the baseball world to largely speculate.
Whatever he decides will likely have dire consequences for the rest of the season. The Padres have a tight budget and need throughout their roster. Trading Dylan Cease it is reported that it could be one solution to their situation, which may happen if they sign Sasaki. The Dodgers already have plenty of rotation options and may consider a trade of their own if they add Sasaki. That’s probably unlikely with the Jays, who have been trying to add a starting pitcher all winter without success so far.
There will be domino effects elsewhere. Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely have to walk away from a verbal commitment to the youth in Latin America, as they will need to redirect bonus money to Sasaki. That will lead to those players looking for other clubs. Some of this seems to have started to happen, as the Pirates are reportedly set to sign Darell Morel, the Dominican shortstop who was previously committed to the Dodgers.
It won’t take long for all of these ongoing impacts to really add up. Sasaki’s transfer window closes on January 23, meaning a decision will come in less than a week. He won’t be able to officially sign until January 15, when the new international signing period begins, although a deal could be reported before then.
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