France’s new prime minister faces his first major test at a time of political instability, the budget crisis

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PARIS (AP) – France’s new prime minister, Francois Bayrou, faces his first major test in parliament Tuesday as his government lacks a majority amid unprecedented political instability.

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Bayrou will address lawmakers in a general policy speech aimed at clarifying his priorities, including important budget decisions, one month after being appointed by President Emmanuel Macron.

What is Bayrou proposing?

Bayrou urgently needs to pass the 2025 budget bill. After the collapse of the previous government, an emergency law was approved so that the country could collect taxes from January 1, pay basic costs and avoid a shutdown.

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But only a proper budget can help reduce France’s deficit and allow for important expenses such as the defense measures needed during the war in Ukraine or the aid promised to angry farmers.

Financial markets, rating agencies and the European Commission are pressuring France to comply with EU rules that limit debt and keep France’s borrowing costs from rising. That would threaten the prosperity of the eurozone countries.

France’s deficit is estimated to reach 6% of its gross domestic product by 2024. Finance Minister Eric Lombard said last week the government is “targeting a deficit of between 5 and 5.5%” this year.

When he took office, Bayrou said that “no one knows better the difficulties of the situation” than he, comparing the challenges facing “the Himalayas.”

Can the government be overthrown again?

Bayrou’s cabinet depends on a fragile agreement between Macron’s allies and the conservatives of the Republican party who do not have a parliamentary majority.

The previous government was in office for only three months before it was ousted by opposition lawmakers from the left and right amid a budget dispute.

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To avoid a repetition of this situation, Bayrou wants to secure a non-aggression pact with the Socialists so that they will not support any future movement to overthrow the new government.

The Socialists have said they are open to talks on the condition that they include discussions about Macron’s unpopular pension reform that was passed two years ago.

However, the chances of another vote of no confidence in him are yet to emerge.

France’s hardline group Unbowed has refused to enter into talks with the government and has announced it will file a no-confidence motion.

A vote later this week will have little chance of success as the right appears reluctant to support the move immediately.

However the question may be raised again during the upcoming budget debate in parliament, with more uncertainty about the outcome.

Why are pension reform discussions important?

Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 sparked mass protests from January to June 2023 that damaged his leadership. This law, which has come into effect gradually, requires people to work for 43 years to receive a full pension.

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Socialists are now urging Bayrou to declare a “suspension” of reforms to provide time for renegotiations, with the aim of pushing back the age of 64 and introducing specific measures for those doing long-term jobs and certain jobs that are considered legitimate. hard work.

The suspension, if announced, will cause anger on the other side of the political spectrum, possibly further weakening Bayrou’s government.

The conservative Senate president, Gerard Larcher, warned that pension measures should not be suspended or withdrawn.

“If we were to cancel the pension reform, the cost would be 3.4 billion euros ($3.47 billion) in 2025 and almost 16 billion ($16.3 billion) in 2032,” it said. he.

Does the far right still have power?

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen – Macron’s fiercest rival – was instrumental in toppling the previous government.

Bayrou negotiated with him when he formed the new government, and Le Pen still has a lot of power. His National Rally party has the largest single party in the National Assembly, France’s powerful house of parliament.

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In recent days, the Bayrou government has sought to sideline Le Pen by negotiating with the Socialists, Greens and Communists on budget issues.

The president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, criticized those talks and warned Monday that his party would oppose any budget that would increase the cost of medicine, provide more health care to immigrants living in the country illegally and impose new taxes on businesses. Such measures would justify a vote of no confidence, he said.

But Le Pen faces her own headache in the coming months – a March court ruling on alleged illegal party financing could see her banned from running.

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