French Prime Minister Bayrou is weakened by the Socialists’ threat to support a vote of no confidence

Written by Dominique Vidalon

PARIS (Reuters) – Hopes of French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s minority government surviving long after the Socialist Party raised threats to support a no-confidence vote on Thursday.

Although Bayrou looks likely to survive the no-confidence motion proposed by the 58 MPs of the far-left France Unbowed (LFI), the Greens and the Communists, the loss of Socialist support could be a big problem, especially after he on Tuesday offered to renegotiate the dispute. 2023 pension reform law to get their support.

If he were to lose the support of the Socialists, Bayrou would find himself in the same position as his predecessor Michel Barnier: at the mercy of the far-right National Rally (RN), whose support he can withdraw at will.

Barnier’s three months in office were cut short after the RN, led by Marine Le Pen, resented his 2025 austerity bill.

“Le Pen and her administration have hit the nail on the head with their intentions for tomorrow’s vote. Chances are they will stand aside and Bayrou survive – for now,” Eurasia Group said in a statement. “Without the support of the Socialists, Bayrou now finds himself vulnerable to the demands and threats of the far right.”

The no-confidence vote will be discussed on Thursday at 1400 GMT, the president of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, told RTL radio on Wednesday.

The Socialists, who voted to oust Barnier in December, made the 2023 pension law deal a condition of backing Bayrou. Consultation with the Socialists was seen as a way for Bayrou to free himself from dependence on the RN.

In parliament on Tuesday, Bayrou opened the door to a renegotiation of the pension system, proposing to give trade unions and employers’ groups three months to find a new, fiscally compatible deal. If it cannot balance, the current agreement will remain in place, Bayrou said.

Socialist leader Olivier Faure said it was not enough.

“We will support the vote of no confidence, unless we get a clear answer to our demands,” Faure told TF1 TV late Tuesday.

He said the Socialists want assurance that if the negotiations fail, the pension law will be reconsidered in parliament.

Budget Minister Amelie de Montchalin appeared to pour cold water on that request commenting on TF1 TV on Wednesday, saying “unions and employers can succeed in their negotiations, this is the right way.”

The pension reform, which became law in the spring of 2023, gradually raises the minimum age for drawing a full pension to 64 from 62.

(Reporting by Dominique Vidalon; Editing by Gabriel Stargardter and Frances Kerry)