10:55am: Nothing is official yet, according to reports from Jack Harris of the LA Times and Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (among others). Harris writes that the two teams are “working on a deal,” and The Athletic indicates that there are “serious” negotiations taking place. There may be semantics at play. Nightengale’s first report clearly stated that the body still needs to happen, so there have been no firm indications of a final deal yet. The 38-year-old pitcher’s body with Yates’ injury history doesn’t mean it’s a layup, but that seems to be the stage they’ve reached. If all goes well, the deal will be announced in the next few days.
9:52am: The Dodgers and the reliever Kirby Yates they have reached a “rough” deal, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The contract is pending finalization of material. Yates, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, will be the Dodgers’ second high-profile bullpen in recent days; they also write ink Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal over the weekend. If the body goes well and the deal is finalized, LA will need to make a corresponding move to move someone off the 40-man roster.
The latest strike in an offseason spending spree that saw the Dodgers deal Scott in free agency, Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Treinen, Michael Conforto and international stars Hyeong Kim again Roki Sasaki. Those additions come as Los Angeles looks to become the first repeat World Series champion since the Yankees tripled back in 1998-2000.
Manager Dave Roberts’ bullpen has been completely overhauled over the past six months, starting with the acquisition deadline Michael Kopech. At the end of July, around Evan Phillips was struggling at the time of Kopech’s acquisition, and much of the stock was in a volatile state. Since then, the Dodgers have acquired Kopech, activated Treinen on the injured list (and, this offseason, re-signed him to a two-year deal) and have now signed both Scott and Yates in free agency. The late-inning group of Scott, Yates, Kopech, Phillips and Treinen is arguably the most talented quintet of any team in baseball.
However, it should be noted that Nightengale suggests that the Dodgers recently learned of Kopech’s injury that could cost him at least a month of the season. Details about the alleged injury have yet to emerge, but that disclosure may have played a part in the team’s decision to sign Yates.
Yates himself is harmless. He’ll turn 38 in March, and has pitched all 11 major league innings since 2020-22 due to injury (Tommy John surgery, most notably). The veteran closer returned a healthy but shaky 2023 season for the Braves, posting a sharp 3.28 ERA in 60 1/3 innings but also walking about 15% of his opponents. He improved across the board with the 2024 Rangers, pitching 61 2/3 innings of 1.17 ERA ball with a 35.9% strikeout rate. His 11.8% walk rate was still significantly higher than the league average of 8.2% but there was a big improvement in his 2023 campaign.
Yates ranked second among all free agent shortstops in strikeout rate last year, trailing only Aroldis Chapman. He matched all eligible relievers in ERA and ranked seventh or better in SIERA (2.85), K-BB% (24.1) and swinging strikeout rate (15.2%). No eligible free agent shortstop has missed more bats in the strike zone than Yates; His opponent’s 74.3% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone sits atop this year’s free agency and sits as the third-best mark in baseball for hitters who have thrown at least 60 innings, trailing only him. Josh Hader again Mason Miller.
Going back to his 2018 split with the Padres, Yates has been dominant when healthy enough to take the mound. He has pitched 257 innings during that span and boasts a 2.21 ERA, a 35.5% strikeout rate, a 10% walk rate and a 15.2% swinging average. He relied on a deadly four-seamer and splitter pairing that helped him miss a lot of at-bats while accumulating 93 saves and 30 catches in 262 appearances on the mound.
The Dodgers have already entered the fourth and final stretch of the penalty shootout. Any dollars allocated to Yates will come with a 110% tax, as was the case with Scott. RosterResource already projects the team’s luxury tax book to sit at $371MM; the addition of Yates would push their CBT number closer to $400MM. The Dodgers were said to owe nearly $108MM in back taxes prior to the Yates signing; assuming you earn an eight-figure salary, they’ll probably owe over $120MM in taxes alone.
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