Is Hezbollah weakening as Lebanon transitions to a new government? | Political Affairs

Beirut, Lebanon – The new president. The new prime minister. And the idea that Hezbollah, arguably the most powerful group in the country, has been weakened.

It’s been a potentially volatile few weeks in Lebanon, especially in terms of a political system that often seems rigid.

The development has been a cause for celebration for many in Lebanon, but it could also lead to questions for the entire political class, including Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, a Shia political and military group, has ruled Lebanon for the better part of the past two decades. But in the past few months, it has faced many setbacks, including the loss of most of its top members, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah, in its war with Israel and the fall of its staunch ally, Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. .

“Hezbollah still has power,” Ziad Majed, a Lebanese political analyst, told Al Jazeera. “It will have to accept being a strong party – and it will be strong – a Lebanese party like all the others but without the ownership of the decision of war and peace.”

Hezbollah ‘hand cut off’

Hezbollah helped Joseph Aoun get the number of votes needed to become president by supporting him in the second round of voting on January 9. But the party, which had planned to support incumbent Najib Mikati in voting for prime minister on January 13, did not agree. it was clear that Nawaf Salam, the former president of the International Court of Justice, would win.

Hezbollah Member of Parliament, Mohammad Raad, said that the party extended a hand to the nation by voting for Aoun but the appointment of Salam saw that “the hand was cut off”.

The Iranian-backed group feels that many of its opponents in the government are taking advantage of the losses it suffered in Israel’s war against Lebanon.

In his first speech as prime minister, Salam promised to unite the people of Lebanon and addressed issues that deeply affect the Shia community after Israel’s war in the country. Israel’s offensive in Lebanon has been concentrated in areas with large Shia populations, even in areas where many locals say Hezbollah’s military infrastructure or fighters were absent, including southern Lebanon, much of the Bekaa Valley and areas of Beirut commonly known as Dahiyeh.

Like Aoun’s speech a few days ago, Salam said he would work to make sure that Israeli forces withdraw “eventually. [Lebanese] the land” and the areas affected by Israel’s destructive invasion would be rebuilt.

“Rebuilding is not just a promise but a commitment,” he said.

“He is smart enough to find the right ways to try to involve everyone,” Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “I don’t think he will try to block the Shia region from participating in the government and in the construction of the state, but this is a decision that the Shia parties have to take.”

Hezbollah, however, is in a critical situation. For years, Hezbollah and its allies had enough political and military influence to block decisions they opposed, such as the formation of a government that did not meet their needs. In one of the best-known examples of the group’s power, Hezbollah deployed fighters on the streets of Beirut in May 2008 after the Lebanese government ordered the group’s private communications network to be dismantled, forcing government authorities to back down.

But the fall of al-Assad’s regime in Syria has made obtaining weapons more difficult and removed a key alliance for the group.

The end of weapons

Under the terms of the cease-fire with Israel, Hezbollah must move north of the Litani River, which runs through southern Lebanon from northern Tire in the west to southern Marjayoun in the east, while the Lebanese army will deploy in the south. Lebanon after the Israelis withdrew from the area.

Hezbollah has said that its military infrastructure should be removed only from the south, but Israel has recently attacked occupied areas in northern Litani that they say are linked to Hezbollah. However, some officials in Israel and the United States – and even Lebanon – have said that Hezbollah’s military infrastructure should be targeted anywhere in Lebanon. This leaves questions as to whether all sides have a common understanding of the arms embargo.

Aoun and Salam both said the regime has control over weapons and will be sent to southern Lebanon, a clear message to Hezbollah that its military hegemony may be over.

Whether Hezbollah will accept that is a different matter. On Saturday, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem warned that Hezbollah must be included in any future government.

“[No one can] do not include us in active and influential political participation in Lebanon as we are an important part of the country’s formation and its renewal,” said Qassem before adding that no power is able to “help at home with the results of the country. [Israeli] anger, because the political method is different from the opposition [Hezbollah]”.

Lebanon’s new leaders have promised to ensure that Israel withdraws from every inch of southern Lebanon and will rebuild its destroyed homes and villages in what analysts believe is an attempt to reach out to the Shia community.

Hezbollah is under pressure from its southern territories, the Bekaa Valley and Dahiyeh to rebuild their homes and lives. For that, analysts say, Lebanon will need international assistance. This may lead Hezbollah to accept the new political direction of Lebanon for the time being.

“Nevertheless [Hezbollah] allows reconstruction to take place in a government-led and well-regulated manner [Arab] Gulf donors are not willing to put in their money, or it will not happen,” said Nadim Houry, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, said Nadim Houry.

And there are indications that, despite rhetoric from some, Hezbollah may be open to reconciliation, at least in the short term.

“What is important is to rebuild government institutions, to achieve political, financial and economic reforms, to implement the ceasefire agreement and to follow the implementation of the Taif Agreement,” Qassem Kassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera, referring to Al Jazeera. a 1989 accord designed to end Lebanon’s 15-year Civil War. “The matter of dealing with the enemy of Israel is one of the priorities.”

New hope for Salam

The partnership between Aoun and Salam represents a shift away from traditional forms of political power in Lebanon and the billionaire prime ministerial profile of some of Salam’s predecessors, including Saad Hariri and current Prime Minister Mikati.

Many in Lebanon say that Salam’s appointment as prime minister is especially a blessing for the country and the hopes for change.

“I have a lot of hope,” said Dalal Mawad, a Lebanese journalist and writer who lists Salam as a mentor. “He combines the justice and accountability and rule of law that we want to see in Lebanon.”

“What we can say is that the appointment of Nawaf Salam definitely brings the future of Lebanon well,” said Bitar. “The majority of Lebanese are optimistic for the first time in decades or at least for the first time since 2019.”

Salam’s name began to circulate for the position of prime minister shortly after the mass protests that broke out on October 17, 2019. He is widely seen as someone who, despite coming from a prominent political family – his relatives include former Prime Minister Saeb Salam and Tammam. Salam – outside the traditional political oligarchy.

In his first speech as prime minister, Salam spoke of building a “modern, civil and just state”.

He also talked about achieving “justice, security, progress and opportunities”.

He specifically spoke about justice for the victims of the August 4, 2020, Beirut port explosion and the 2019 banking crisis where depositors were robbed of their money and no officials or banks were held accountable.

Lebanese media reported on Tuesday that the investigation into the blast, which was dismissed by Lebanese political parties including Hezbollah, would soon resume.

Struggles ahead

Despite the majority focus on Hezbollah, all of Lebanon’s powerful parties have used the system to avoid accountability or to thwart a controversial political agenda.

The next challenge for Aoun and Salam will be to present their statements as they face a political process built on sectarianism.

Lebanon’s sectarian system “needs new methods,” Majed said, adding that Lebanon needs to reign in the violence of state institutions and weapons and “a strategy to protect Lebanon from Israel’s real enmity”.

Under the current sectarian system, Lebanon is ruled by a handful of political parties and leaders who have deep support and control over state institutions. These leaders, who come from religious groups in Lebanon, are accused of using these resources and their political power to create a network of philanthropy, to make the people accountable to them rather than the state.

These forces are entrenched in their positions and resist change.

“We need to make fundamental, structural changes in Lebanon’s political system, and I don’t know if that’s possible,” Hilal Khashan, a political scientist at the American University of Beirut and a colleague of Salam’s, told Al Jazeera.

Appointing strong or new leaders is not all that is needed to eliminate corruption and entrenched clientelism. Salam, for example, is not the first professional to take a prominent role in Lebanon.

“The difference is that, in the past, experts came to power when the political class wanted to reverse it,” said Houry. “They didn’t even bring legitimacy, which depended on the political class, so they didn’t have the power or support to make many of their changes.”

But today, the turmoil in Lebanon means that the political class understands that it must allow some changes to take place – even if it will continue to oppose systemic changes.

Salam and Aoun will have to deal with questions of economic stability, security and national dialogue without alienating any community and while managing foreign relations, including Israeli aggression. The series of issues to be addressed is long and difficult.

However, analysts said Salam and Aoun have a unique opportunity. The fall of the al-Assad regime, the ongoing turmoil in Lebanese affairs, the weakening of Iran and the willingness of the international community to provide foreign aid and support to Lebanon’s new leaders means that there is support for the reform agenda that was not there before. There.

Even with favorable conditions, dealing with Lebanon’s deeply entrenched and entrenched political class will still be a difficult endeavor. Many commentators said that although they had a positive view of Salam’s appointment, they were skeptical about whether anyone would be able to disrupt the Lebanese political system.

Still, Khashan said, Salam is “the right man at this time”.