The Blue Jays finally had a big splash, snagging a slugger from their division rival. The Jays have officially announced the signing of the star outfielder Anthony Santander in a five-year contract. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client is reportedly guaranteed $92.5MM, though a major setback has lowered the current figure. For luxury tax purposes, the contract reportedly comes with an average annual value of around $14MM – suggesting MLB calculates a current value closer to $70MM. Santander can opt out after the third year, although the club will have the power to opt out of that by picking up the 2030 option. That has a base value of $15MM and includes a $5MM buyout.
The option and various escalators could run another $17.5MM in that sixth season. The deal is front-loaded and contains more than $35MM in waivers, which could increase to more than $50MM depending on the outcome of the exit/election. Toronto is designated on the left Brandon Eisert with an assignment to create a 40-man roster spot.
Santander, 30, has established himself as one of the strongest players in the league over the years. That includes a whopping 44 homers in 2024. That was his career best but it was also his sixth straight season in double figures and third straight with at least 28 long balls.
Earlier in his career, he limited that power production with tepid results in batting average and drawing walks, though he has been much better at drawing free passes over the past three years. From 2019 to 2021, he hit 49 homers in 240 games but had a 5.2% walk rate. That led to a .252/.295/.474 batting line and a 100 wRC+, showing his strengths and weaknesses on par with overall league average production.
In the 2022 to 2024 seasons, Santander improved his walk rate by a few ticks, finishing between 8.4% and 8.7% in each. That’s about the league average, with all MLB hitters walking at an 8.2% clip last year. He added that walk without sacrificing his power, putting the ball over the wall 105 times, making for a productive combination. He had a combined .244/.317/.478 line over those three campaigns, which translated to a 124 wRC+.
Outside of those home runs, Santander’s contributions were limited. As mentioned, the underlying skills have been low overall, although they have been decent for the past three years. He is not a hitter on the bases, he has stolen more than two bases in a season. His outfield defense is generally ranked below league average. He has a career -3 Defensive Runs Saved in over 5,000 innings, and an Outs Above Average with him at -13.
Although he is not a great player, he is a great fit for the Blue Jays for many reasons. The club’s offense was actually around league average last year, though it has much better on-base ability than power production. As a team, the Jays slashed .241/.313/.389 with a 101 wRC+, tied for 13th in the league. Their 8.4% walk rate was actually one of the better marks, tied for seventh among 30 MLB clubs. But they hit just 156 home runs, less than the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. he was the only guy on the team to reach the 20-homer plateau.
In addition, Santander is a switch-hitter, while the Jays have been right-leaning in recent years. Guerrero, Bo Bichette, George Springer again Alejandro Kirk all project regular roles next year and each is in the right hand. Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider, Leo Jiménez again Orelvis Martinez they are good people who can earn spots in the team. The Jays have a few lefties, four Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, Is Wagner again Joey Loperfido among them, although there are question marks there. Varsho and Giménez have been great players in the gloves while Wagner and Loperfido still lack big league experience. Santander’s split was the closest to neutrality in his career. He hit .252/.320/.467 with a 116 wRC+ against lefties, .243/.302/.470 with a 111 wRC+ against righties.
A defensive hit from Santander’s lineup and probably not a big deal for Toronto. The Jays, as a team, led the league with 102 DRS last year. Their 26 OAA totals were fourth in the league. Giving up a small amount of defense for a big power bat that they need is a reasonable trade for them. They also don’t have a regular designated hitter and can keep Santander in that spot normally. Justin Turner took most of the team’s DH games in 2024 before being traded to the Mariners at the deadline.
Despite the balance on the field, the Jays have clearly been looking for a big W season for a long time. The last year-plus has seen them do solid marquee acts, like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki, Fried Max again Corbin Burnsbut Jay also comes a little bit in all that.
After missing out on Ohtani last winter, the Jays turned to a modest move, re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and adding Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa again Yariel Rodríguez. No one in that group received a guarantee larger than $32MM. The 2024 season then turned into a major disappointment, when the Jays engineered a mid-season selloff and finished 74-88. They seemed to come this winter wanting to get rid of the base of fans who were unhappy but the close ones missed Soto, Sasaki, Fried and Burnes and they just made things worse. Whether Santander is a true star depends on whether this signing will be Toronto’s biggest since signing Kevin Gausman three years ago.
The one silver lining of the 2024 season for the Jays is that their midseason trade brought them under the competitive balance tax, which reduced their penalties for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That’s the case here, as the Orioles extended a QO to Santander, which naturally declined. If the Jays had paid the tax in 2024, they would have lost $1MM in international bonus cap space by signing Santander, in addition to giving up their second- and fifth-round picks in the draft. Going under the tax, the penalty is just $500K of pool space for 2026 and only their second best choice. With Santander guaranteed more than $50MM in this contract, the O’s will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of this summer’s draft.
Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted Santander could get a four-year, $80MM deal. He seemed very interested, and the Jays connected with him early on. Clubs like the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and Angels were also rumored to be interested at various times. Santander and his management reportedly tried to parlay that interest into a five-year deal and/or $100MM guarantee in December, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. But he went unsigned long into the new year and was reportedly open to considering a shorter deal.
In the end, he got his five years, albeit at a lower annual rate than he wanted. A sticker price of $92.5MM over five years leads to an $18.5MM AAV, but deferrals reduce that by a decent amount. Opting out gives him an opportunity for some future upside, though the Jays could pick up the option and make it $110MM over six years.
Using a pre-deferral $18.5MM AAV, RosterResource projects the club to earn $237MM in salary and $263MM in CBT this year. The club opened with a $225MM payroll last year, according to Cot’s baseball contracts, so they’re already over that. President Mark Shapiro previously suggested that he did not expect the club’s spending to change much compared to last year, perhaps suggesting that there is not much room left in the budget now. Although TSN’s Scott Mitchell suggests a signing Pete Alonso it’s still a chance for the Jays even after acquiring Santander, which seems to indicate otherwise. The club is reportedly interested in starting pitching development and has been working to strengthen the bullpen all winter. CBT’s number is already higher than this year’s second tier of $261MM, although the club will be a “first time” payer due to last year’s fraud.
Maybe the Jays will make some more additions, like bringing in Alonso. Such a move would force him and Guerrero to share first base and the DH spot, thus pushing Santander into an everyday outfielder. If that happens, you’ll definitely be in one corner with Springer in the other. Varsho will be the team’s regular striker when he is healthy. Guys like Loperfido, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Jonathan’s section again Alan Roden either options for deeper roles or bench jobs. If Santander can work as a DH on a regular basis, that could open up more playing time for those others.
For the clubs missed by Santander, the foreign market has been reduced. In addition to Santander, guys like Soto, Teoscar Hernández, Michael Conforto again Tyler O’Neill get off the board. Jurickson Profar now he stands alone as a top unsigned option, so maybe his market will now pick up. Boys love it Randal Grichuk, Harrison Bader, Mark Canha and others are available.
MLB Network’s Jon Morosi first reported that Santander and the Jays were in agreement, pending a physical. Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet later reported that the body was intact. KPRC 2’s Ari Alexander first reported the five-year extension, opt-out/club option, signing bonus, $92.5MM guaranteed and an opportunity to reach $110MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the exit is after 2027. Nicholson-Smith reported a front-loaded nature, and an estimated $14MM CBT. Alexander reported that more than $35MM has been deferred.
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