The Twins and Padres have both been quiet this winter but could come together to make a move before the season starts. According to a report from Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the club has discussed trade terms involving the poacher. Christian Vázquez but the Twins are also among the clubs interested in the San Diego right-hander Dylan Cease.
That is not to suggest that an individual exchange of Vázquez for Cease is possible. Vázquez will make $10MM this year, which makes him a bit underpaid as a part-time, glove-first catcher. Cease, on the other hand, is an excellent pitcher who will make $13.75MM this year. That gives him a lot of added value.
That the Twins would be interested in Cease isn’t as surprising as any club would be, as he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball over the past four years. From 2021 to 2024, he did at least 32 times in each of those seasons. His 716 innings pitched during that span is seventh in the majors behind only him Aaron Nola, Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burns, José Berríos again Kevin Gausman.
That number came with quality, as Cease allowed 3.52 runs per nine innings while striking out 29.7% of the batters he faced. His 9.7% walk rate was high but not by much. His 17.2 wins over innings in that span is sixth in the majors, behind the five aforementioned pitchers but ahead of Berríos.
The best agents for pitchers typically earn over $30MM per year, with Blake Snell again Corbin Burns both crossed that line this year. Even older pitchers come off seasons with injuries like this Alex Cobb again Justin Verlander will surpass Cease this year, each earning $15MM in salary for 2025.
All of those things make him very valuable to the Padres but they may be cornered when they have to consider making him available. RosterResource projects $208MM in earnings this year, up from last year’s figure of $169MM. It is reported that they can push a little more than their 2024 number but not by much, so a decent cut seems necessary. They will have to do that while filling the holes on the left side and back of the plate, as well as the rotation.
There aren’t many good options for withdrawing money. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Fernando Tatis Jr. again Joe Musgrove all have no-trade clauses in their contracts. Jake Cronenworth he only has an eight-team no-trade clause but his deal is tough to move regardless of his production declining after signing that deal and still being paid $71MM over the next six years. Robert Suarez he only has three years left on his deal but an opt-out/player option a year from now makes trade negotiations difficult.
All that goes away Luis Arráez and Stop as the best trading options. Each will enter his final season of arbitration and will lead eight people. However, Arráez may not have much trade value, despite his high batting averages. He’s not a good defender, baserunner or power threat, which limits his overall production.
It all leaves the Padres and president of baseball operations AJ Preller with a tightrope to walk. Quitting is probably their best option to make a trade that is similar to Juan Soto agreement from last season. In that deal, the Padres took one big player and his significant salary, and traded him back Trent Grisham to the Yankees in a five-player package. One of those players was Michael Kingwho strengthened their circulation. One was hope Drew Thorpethe Padres were getting Cease. Additions of Kyle Higashioka, Randy Vásquez again Johnny Brito it also strengthened the depth and grip and depth.
Browsing Stop help in a few spots might be the Friars’ best option right now but it could also weaken a rotation that already looks like a soft spot. With Musgrove set to miss the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the rotation currently consists of King, Cease, Darvish and question marks. Guys like Vásquez, Brito, Matt Waldron again Adrián Morejón they may bounce back but they are not a strong team. That would be even more true without Cease.
The twins have their own financial problems but they can make it work with Cease. A recent report suggested the Twins don’t really need to cut payroll but don’t have much cap space yet. Trading a portion of the $10MM owed to Vázquez would help, as would moving the $7.5MM owed to him. Chris Paddack or $6.4MM of Willi Castro.
The Twins currently project to have a combined rotation Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and Paddack. The switch to Cease for Paddack would obviously be an improvement, considering Paddack hasn’t pitched much the past few years due to elbow issues, including Tommy John surgery, and has had mediocre results on the mound.
The Twins also have a small and affordable pitching that could interest the Padres. Pots like it Zebby Matthews again David Festa released in 2024 without much success but both were notable prospects last year and still have a lot of success ahead of them. The fact that each still has six years of cheap control available would be good for the Padres, but the Twins will have to think about whether that’s a fair price for one year of a pitcher like Cease. Twins also have similar arms Marco Raya, Travis Adams again CJ Culpepper in its deep mixing.
As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored, the Padres may look to last winter’s Burnes trade as a good match for Cease. The Brewers turned Burnes’ one-year career into two notable prospects DL Hall again Joey Ortiz. Both were top 100 prospects who had broken the majors but had not yet been established.
That’s probably the kind of return that could work for the Padres. Taking out Suspensions for pitchers like Matthews/Festa will lower their rotation certainty but give them more options at cheaper prices. The Twins may not like this arrangement, however, as a report from The Athletic indicates that “they would prefer to offer a package full of value to fill out the Padres’ depth as opposed to the top talent Preller likes to poach.”
Although Preller has been unusually quiet this winter, it may be time for him to make the jump. The Padres were one of the finalists Roki Sasaki and he would have been of great help in their present crisis. As a plug-and-play ace who will be earning a minimum salary this year, he would be a great fit for the club in terms of their roster and financial situation.
Perhaps Preller was waiting for clarity on that big decision from Sasaki. Now that the young righty has officially signed with the Dodgers, Preller must turn to other options. Given his struggles, trading Cease might have to be on his to-do list. If so, the Twins aren’t the only club interested, so Preller should field more calls.
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