The Cubs have finalized a two-year free agent deal with the catcher Carson Kelly on friday evening. Apex Baseball’s client is reportedly guaranteed $11.5MM with the opportunity to earn an additional $500K annually in compensation. Kelly will make $5MM in salary over the next two seasons and is guaranteed a $1.5MM buyout with a combined $7.5MM option for 2027. He could unlock a $250K bonus by starting 81 and 91 games in each season. Chicago already has 40-man roster space after dealing two roster players this weekend Kyle Tucker trade.
Kelly was an outstanding undrafted player. The thin market moved quickly. Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Higashioka, Gary Sanchez, Danny Jansen, Jacob Stallings again Austin Hedges they all got MLB deals. Kelly joins Higashioka and d’Arnaud in getting a second guaranteed year and surpassing the $10MM mark.
The righty-swinging backstop had a great year in 2024. Kelly started the season very well, hitting .240/.325/.391 with seven home runs in 203 plate trips for the Tigers. Detroit traded him to the Rangers at the deadline. That was designed to give Kelly a chance to join a rival, but the Rangers fizzled out while the Tigers made a surprise playoff run in the last few months. Kelly’s belt took off after the move, as he hit .235/.291/.343 with two homers in 31 games as a Ranger.
That mediocre finish led Texas to pursue Higashioka instead. Still, Kelly’s combined .238/.313/.374 line in 313 plate appearances is solid work from a shortstop. Statcast gave him good grades for his work behind the plate, crediting him with better than average frame metrics and blocks. While Kelly’s raw arm strength is in the middle of the pack, he drops an average of over 26.3% of steals.
That was a repeat after Kelly had back-to-back offensive performances in 2022 and ’23. He combined for a .210/.281/.320 slash between the Diamondbacks and Tigers. Kelly has been showing the opposite of being a true #1 catcher early in his career in Arizona. Since then he has established himself as a professional part-time player.
That’s the role he has to play in Chicago. The Cubs could split the playing time evenly between the 25-year-old Kelly Miguel Amaya. A former top scorer, Amaya struggled at the start of the year before fading in the final two months of the season. He finished the season with a .232/.288/.357 slash over 363 plate appearances. The strong finish wasn’t enough to keep the Cubs from completely cornering the bullpen, but it lessened their urgency to impress a trade from the top of the farm system for a clear start.
Kelly’s salary boosts Chicago’s projected salary cap to nearly $199MM, according to figures on RosterResource. The average annual value of $5.75MM pushes their estimated balance tax number to $215MM. That leaves them about $25MM below the luxury tax threshold.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported on Monday that the Cubs and Kelly were closing in on a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first report $11.5MM guarantee. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers first reported the existence of a ’27 mutual option and a potential $500K in annual titles. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma had a breakdown of salaries and some details on bonuses. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
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