Blue Jays are known to exist Juan Soto bidding, but like all teams, they should consider backup plans. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith looks at their pursuit of Soto and notes that they are also interested. Fried Max, Luis Severino, Anthony Santander again Alex Bregman. MLBTR previously listed their interest in Fried and Santander.
Bregman, 31, is one of the free agents available this winter. He has a career batting line of .272/.366/.483, which translates to a 135 wRC+, indicating he was 35% better than league average at the plate overall. His strikeout rate has never been higher than 13.6% in any of his six full seasons, about half the league average. His walk rate dropped slightly in 2024 but was more than half his career high.
He also gets strong marks for his defensive third base and is willing to move to second base if he signs with a team with a big need there. His clubhouse and leadership qualities are often praised by those who have played with him. MLBTR offered Bregman a seven-year, $182MM contract at the start of the offseason. It’s been confirmed that the Astros want him back, but he’s also been linked to the Tigers, Red Sox, Phillies and now the Blue Jays.
For the Jays, third base and second base are both stable. Ernie Clement was the first option at the hot corner in 2024 and had a serviceable season. His .263/.284/.408 batting line was slightly below average, translating to a 94 wRC+. But he also stole 12 bases and got strong marks for his glove work at third base and shortstop, as well as brief looks at second base and left field.
The total package added up to 2.2 wins over FanGraphs’ turnovers and Clement is still on the list, but he shouldn’t stand in the way of someone like Bregman getting in. If Bregman takes over as the everyday guy at the hot corner, it could move Clement to a relief role, which would still allow him to contribute appropriately on a regular basis.
At second base, Spencer Horwitz again Davis Schneider I got some nice pieces of playtime, next to the ones who are gone now Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Horwitz has hit well in his major league career so far but he is not a second baseman, only moving there as his first base position has been taken by. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Several hitter plate appearances have been made Justin Turner in 2024, no longer in the group. Perhaps that frees up Horwitz and Guerrero to share that spot and first base in 2025, depending on what other moves the Jays make this winter. Schneider is coming off a down season and can play left field.
The Jays have other players on the roster who can play third or second base, incl Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Is Wagner again Leo Jiménezbut no one on that team has 70 games of major league experience. With the Jays looking to bounce back quickly from a poor 2024 campaign, it makes sense to look for a big player like Bregman instead of hoping someone on that team takes a step forward. The Jays are also tied at shortstop Willy Adamswho is reportedly willing to move to third base with his new team if they already have a shortstop. The Jays have it Bo Bichette In short, he only has one year left in free agency, so that’s a move that could help in the short and long term.
The interest in Severino coincides with the rest of the club’s rotation. As mentioned, Fried was also arrested Corbin Burns again Blake Snellalthough Snell is now off the board due to his deal with the Dodgers. Severino was once seen as a budding ace with the Yankees but didn’t pitch much from 2019 to 2021 due to injuries. He managed to put in partial seasons in 2022 and 2023 but with inconsistent results.
He is coming off a solid bounceback year with the Mets. He went 32 innings and threw 182 innings, the first time he’s thrown more than 102 innings since 2018. Beyond the quantity, there has also been some quality, as Severino has allowed 3.91 earned runs per innings. His 21.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate were all close to the league average.
Severino isn’t as exciting as Burnes or Fried but he won’t be as expensive either. MLBTR projected Burnes with a $200MM guarantee and Fried was slightly behind at $156MM. Severino, meanwhile, was targeted for a three-year deal worth $51MM.
The Jays have a veteran rotation nucleus that includes José Berríos, Kevin Gausman again Chris Bassitt. The other place probably has a ticket to it Bowden Francis after his strong second half. Fifth place options include Yariel Rodríguez again Jake Bloss but there is logic in the addition of the Jays. Rodríguez has plenty of experience in relief and the Jays need help in the bullpen, so he can be pushed there, at least until an injury opens up a need in the rotation. Bloss has just under 12 major league innings and 112 in the minors, so he could get another season in Triple-A until the big league opportunity presents itself.
On the financial side of things, RosterResource projects the Jays for a salary of $189MM next year. President Mark Shapiro suggested that the club will end up with a salary almost the same as in 2024. Cot’s baseball contracts put their Opening Day figure at $225MM last year, so that leaves them with roughly $35MM of wiggle room.
Adding one of these notable free agents would fit into that window, though Soto would be a unique case. The average annual value of his contract will certainly exceed that number, but Nicholson-Smith reported that the Jays will release Soto, willing to stretch the budget more than they would otherwise.
Each of Soto, Bregman, Severino, Fried, Burnes, Santander and Adames declined qualifying offers, so the corresponding fines will also have to be considered. The Jays appear to have come under the competitive balance sheet in 2024 with their midseason selloff, though it’s not yet official. If that turns out to be the case, the Jays will have to give up their second-best pick in the upcoming draft and $500K in international bonus cap space to sign one of these players.
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