Hard hit by rising imports, policy efforts to target the steel sector to protect its interests by 2025.
Having been hit hard by increased imports, the Indian steel industry will be looking closely at policy efforts in 2025 to protect its interests as it moves towards a target of 300 MnT capacity amid rising raw material prices.
Another challenge facing the industry will be to accelerate its efforts to transition to cleaner production systems with the government’s push for green steel production amid a global push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from struggling sectors.
Government intervention will be important as the Indian steel industry is in a state of expansion to build a production capacity of 300 MnTPA by 2030 and will require an investment worth about Rs 10 lakh crore to add the remaining capacity of 120 MnT to achieve the target.
According to the Ministry of Steel, India remained the largest importer of steel, with imports in April-September FY25 exceeding exports by a wide margin.
In the April-September 2024 period, imports rose over 41 percent to 4.70 million tonnes (MnT) from 3.33 MnT in the last six months of the fiscal year. Exports fell 36 percent to 2.31 MnT from 3.60 MnT in April-September FY24, official data showed.
Regarding imports, the Ministry said there is a growing need for the industry to protect against cheap imports from China directly or countries like Vietnam etc.
The global situation also shows high level efforts to protect local industries. The EU has already imposed anti-dumping duties on cold and hot stainless steel, while Brazil, Mexico, and the US have also implemented duties to protect their domestic markets, it added.
On December 2, the steel ministry, in a meeting with the commerce ministry, proposed a 25 percent safeguard duty on certain imported steel products. Steel Minister HD Kumaraswamy and Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal were present at the meeting.
The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), under the Ministry of Commerce, has also initiated an investigation into the alleged increase in imports of certain flat steel products into the country following a complaint by the Indian Steel Association (ISA), its apex body. members include Tata Steel, JSW Steel, AMNS India, Jindal Steel and Power and state Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL).
Industry members said that of India’s total steel imports of 5.7 MT in April-November 2025, about 79 percent came from China, Japan and Korea alone.
The direct impact of the increase in imports in India has been a sharp drop in prices of steel products, especially in the flat section, where capacity expansion has been prevalent in the recent past, in addition to the increase in imports, they added.
Despite the storms, the industry has made progress, which looks set to continue in 2025.
In 2024, India’s crude steel capacity is estimated at 180 MnT, up from 164 MnT in 2023. Production is expected to be 146 MnT in 2024, up from 130 MnT in 2023. Usage is likely to be 145 MnT MT3 over 140 .
By 2025, the industry expects capacity to be 195 MnT, production to be 158 MnT and consumption to be 155 MnT.
The sector expects policy support in the production and import of raw materials, including financial benefits, as there was a problem in the market due to the drop in steel prices compared to the high input costs in 2024.
Coking coal, which was at USD 200/tonne at the end of Q2 (Jul-Sep FY25) rose to USD 225/tonne in December, and iron ore, priced at USD 90/tonne, touched the level of USD 100/tonne , market research firm BigMint said.
Meanwhile, HRC prices continued to decline from Rs 48,000/tonne at the end of Q2 to Rs 47,000/tonne in December.
In December, the government introduced a green metal tax to promote cleaner practices and the use of alternative raw materials.
This is expected to give domestic players an opportunity given the European Union’s proposed CBAM approach to combat emissions, which does not encourage imports of steel through unsustainable practices.
Steel producers need to speed up the decarbonisation process as most of the steel produced will not be able to get even a three-star category with low CO2 emissions of 2.2 tonne/finished steel, PHDCCI Chairman, Minerals and Metals Committee, said Anil Chaudhary. .
Following the government’s push for green steel, the industry will have to improve its energy efficiency, reduce furnace emissions by using alternative fuels and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), and switch to clean gas-based methods by using coal gas, Dastur Energy. CEO and President Atanu Mukherjee said.
Industry body CII also said that the current direction and adoption of green steel in the country is slow, posing a barrier to future development.
Discussing the outlook for the sector by 2025, Ritabrata Ghosh, Vice President and Sector Head – Business Estimates, Icra, said that energy consumption in the industry is set to drop below 80 percent after a gap of four years.
In the new year, the stainless steel industry said it expects the government to introduce a different policy for the sector, with different concerns.
Synergy Steels director Anubhav Kathuria said, “Stainless steel policy will be important to achieve higher capacity utilization, surpass the current levels of 60 percent and contribute to economic and industrial development in the long term”.
The industry will prioritize the need to drive stainless steel in sustainable urban development, water infrastructure, and smart city projects by 2025, said Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA) President Rajamani Krishnamurti.
