As the Padres look to retool their roster ahead of the 2025 season, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club is interested in trading both players who could potentially hit free agency next winter and players under long-term club control. In particular, Lin notes that the club has received interest from right-wing users Dylan Cease again Robert Suarez and belly dancers Luis Arráez again Jake Cronenworth. It is not clear whether the club is negotiating with any of those players as the situation stands.
Cease and Arraez have both seen their names in the news a lot this winter, but Suarez and Cronenworth haven’t been discussed much so far. In fact, Lin himself suggested in early December that the Padres were inclined to keep Suarez at that point in the offseason. It is worth noting that the club has begun to entertain the services of those close to them. At the time, Lin pointed out that Suarez’s trade value was complicated by the presence of an opt-out clause in his contract that would have allowed him to hit free agency after the 2025 season rather than receive $8MM in salaries in 2026 and ’27.
Perhaps as the transfer market has started to grow, rival clubs have changed their approach to Suarez. Rightly so Jeff Hoffman received a $33MM deal with the Blue Jays, a veteran pitcher Andrew Kittredge getting a $10MM guarantee from the Orioles, and other reports suggest he’s close Tanner Scott could get an AAV in the $20MM range this winter, it’s certainly possible that the opportunity to be on the hook for $26MM over three years if Suarez opts in is becoming more attractive. After all, Suarez’s 2.77 ERA in 65 innings as the Padres closer ranks him as one of the better relief arms in the game and he compares favorably to Kittredge in particular. That being said, it is also possible that the Padres are willing to clear salary as the season continues and are open to dealing with Suarez even if his return is easier than they were admitting last month.
As for Cronenworth, it’s hard to imagine the club getting a meaningful return for his services beyond the salary relief. He was a viable infield option for San Diego in 2024, hitting a league average of nearly .241/.324/.390 in 656 trips to the plate while splitting time between first and second base. That was enough to make Cronenworth nearly a two-time winner according to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference last year, a significant step up from 2023 but below the numbers he posted during his back-to-back All-Star campaigns in 2021 as well. 2022. With more than $72.7MM left on Cronenworth’s contract to be paid over his 31 to 36 seasons, the amount is variable. the infielder seems unlikely to move unless the Padres eat significant salary or take another bad contract in return.
Interestingly, Lin suggests that the Padres would like to keep “at least” Arraez in the bullpen through 2025 of those four terms. That’s surprising when you consider Arraez’s $14MM salary cap in his final year under team control and the fact that replacing him early on could be done on the cheap, thus freeing up cap space for other areas to develop. Even Lin admits that Arraez’s expensive final year under contract could be a stumbling block for San Diego as they look to retool their roster. That being said, the Arraez market may not have been particularly strong. Few teams have been directly linked to the shortstop this winter, and one of the rumored players was taken off the table when reports backpedaled on the idea that the Yankees might be interested in acquiring Arraez for their second team in 2025.
However the club has finally decided to move the salary, it looks like they will have to make a trade or two before the season starts. RosterResource projects the club to receive a luxury tax of just under $243MM in 2025, putting it about $2MM above the starting cap, with an actual salary of just over $208MM. The club certainly wants to get under that initial luxury tax threshold this winter, and previous reports have indicated that they want their final salary to stay below its current level without falling back from last year’s $169MM. With clear needs in the outfield and trades, it’s hard to imagine the Padres achieving all of their offseason goals without moving at least one player for significant salary in 2025, if not more.
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