After more than 15 months of almost non-stop fighting in Gaza, diplomats trying to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas expressed high hopes on Tuesday that a deal could finally be reached.
But that hope has dwindled — due to uncertainty over whether the two sides will finally agree, what details could change and the experience of the past months when disarmament talks repeatedly broke down.
“We believe we are in the final stage, but until we get an announcement – there will be no announcement,” Majed al-Ansari, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of one of the mediating countries, Qatar, told reporters on Tuesday.
Here’s what we know about a possible ceasefire deal.
What is the status of negotiations?
The US Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken, said on Tuesday that Israel and Hamas were “on the brink” of agreeing to an agreement to end the war in Gaza and release hostages held there in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned in Israeli prisons.
He and other foreign mediators, including Qatar and Egypt, have been unable to reach talks for months, but have made rapid progress in recent weeks.
The mediators “were able to reduce many of the differences between the two sides,” Mr. al-Ansari said, adding that they focused on “the final details of reaching an agreement.”
“On Sunday, the United States, Qatar and Egypt put forward a final proposal,” said Mr. Blinken. “The ball is now in Hamas’s court.”
Officials in the Israeli government and Hamas have suggested they are ready to move forward if the other side signs on.
On Monday, a senior Hamas official said a deal was possible in the coming days as long as Israel did not change suddenly. On Tuesday, an Israeli official said Israel was ready to close the deal and was waiting for Hamas to make a decision.
Hamas officials negotiating in Qatar must get the approval of the remaining military commanders in Gaza on the deal. Those commanders include Mohammad Sinwar, whose brother led the group before being killed by Israel in September. Because of their need to keep their locations private, communicating with them can be difficult, causing delays.
It was not clear whether Mr. Has Sinwar conveyed his opinion about the disarmament proposal to the leaders of Hamas in Qatar.
What is the proposal?
Given the sensitive and ongoing negotiations, officials were wary of describing the proposed deal in anything but broad terms.
The draft of this agreement was heavily inspired by previous proposals that were discussed in May and July, said one politician familiar with the negotiations, who did not want to be named to discuss the heated discussions. Those proposals detail a three-step ceasefire in which Israeli forces will gradually withdraw from Gaza, as Hamas releases hostages in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Israeli officials hope to release at least some of the 100 or so hostages held in Gaza since the October 2023 attack by Hamas in southern Israel that started the war. About 35 hostages remain presumed dead by Israeli authorities.
Hamas leaders want to end Israel’s military campaign, ensure the flow of reconstruction goods and gain the freedom of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.
In the first phase of the proposed ceasefire – which will last about six weeks – Hamas will release 33 hostages, most of whom Israel believes are alive, said an Israeli official, who asked not to be named to discuss the sensitive negotiations. Israel is willing to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange, the official said, but the number depends on how many hostages are still alive.
Why did the negotiations move so quickly in the last weeks?
Some officials have suggested that the US administration’s transition, which will take place on Jan. 20, put pressure on Israel and Hamas to speed up their decision-making after months of delays.
The incoming US president, Donald J. Trump, has warned that there will be “hell to pay” unless the hostages are released during his presidency. Steve Witkoff, his choice for ambassador to the Middle East, has also been to Qatar and Israel.
Talks have also gained momentum since Israel reached a separate cease-fire agreement with the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah, which began firing rockets into Israel immediately after a Hamas-led offensive in October 2023. to end the firefight with Israel in November, a deal that helped divide -Hamas.
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