The long overdue Gaza ceasefire may stop the killing, but it will not end the conflict

A senior Palestinian official told the BBC that Hamas would release three female soldiers on the first day of the ceasefire. Mediators in Doha are trying an earlier start to the ceasefire, on Thursday evening instead of Sunday.

Until the fighting ends, the war that began when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023 continues. At least 12 Palestinians were killed by Israeli strikes in northern Gaza when a ceasefire was announced.

15 months ago, a video emerged from northern Gaza showing their bodies being taken out by ambulances in sheets and lined up outside the hospital.

The ceasefire is a major diplomatic achievement. It’s been a long time. The types of this agreement have been on the table since it was announced by US President Joe Biden in May last year. Hamas and Israel have blamed each other for the delay.

In Khan Younis in Gaza, journalists working for the BBC filmed Palestinians dancing and singing as it became clear that a ceasefire had been agreed.

Israel does not allow international journalists to enter Gaza to report freely, so the BBC and other news organizations rely on brave Palestinian journalists to gather the news. The reporting of the last 15 months of war would not have been possible without them. Israel has killed more than 200 Palestinian journalists in Gaza.

Umm Muhammad, an elderly Palestinian woman, told one of our reporters that she feels happy and free.

“The pain has disappeared a little, although it is still there. I hope it will be overcome by happiness. Let our prisoners be freed, the wounded treated. The people are tired.”

Other than survival there is not much to celebrate for the Palestinians in Gaza. Israel killed at least 50,000 people. More than two million people have been forced from their homes by the Israeli army.

Israel’s response to the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 that killed around 1200 people, most of them Israeli citizens, left Gaza in ruins. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, Israel’s attacks have killed nearly 50,000 people, including civilians. A recent study in the medical journal The Lancet says that may be a gross underestimate.

In Tel Aviv, it has also been a sad time for the families and supporters of the Israeli hostages, living and dead. In the first phase of the ceasefire, 33 women, elderly men and the sick and wounded will be released in the next six weeks in exchange for the return of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees – but the fate of other hostages depends on further negotiations. .

Negotiations for the second phase of the agreement, to release the remaining Israeli hostages for the return of the imprisoned Palestinians and the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza are to begin sixteen days after the agreement.

The first big challenge is to make sure that the ceasefire holds. Senior western politicians fear that after the first phase of 42 days the war could start again.

The war in Gaza has had far-reaching consequences for the entire Middle East. It did not, as many feared, lead to a general war in the region — the Biden Administration claimed credit for that — but it led to a geostrategic uprising.

Hamas is still fighting but a shadow of what it used to be. Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister have been indicted for war crimes by the International Court of Justice. The International Court of Justice is investigating a case filed by South Africa accusing Israel of killing people.

After Lebanon’s Hezbollah intervened in the war, it was eventually crushed by Israel. That was the cause that led to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran and Israel are exchanging direct attacks – weakening Iran. Its network of allies and proxies that Tehran calls the Axis of Resistance is crippled.

The Houthis in Yemen have stopped most shipping between Europe and Asia via the Red Sea. Now reports say they have announced their own ceasefire. Since they started attacking the ships at the beginning of the war, they said that only the meeting in Gaza would be stopped.

Fortunately, political will and a strong negotiation effort will be held despite the inevitable violations. Fortunately, it can stop the killings and return Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and detainees to their families.

But after 15 months of war in Gaza, the conflict that has dragged on for more than a century is as bitter and unrelenting as ever.

A ceasefire does not end the conflict. The effects of such destruction and death will be felt for a generation, at least.