The idea | ‘We’d Be Better If Trump Won in 2020’: Three Columnists Fight for First 100 Days

I expect Trump’s second term to be more effective than his first, and thus more dangerous. If Trump orders the military to help with mass deportations or attack protesters, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will not oppose him. Corporate America, and especially Big Tech, is completely on board like never before. It drives me crazy when Trump’s apologists point out how many times he failed in his first term saying that we shouldn’t take all his crazy threats seriously, when all the people who have gone soft on him are gone.

That said, there is a wide range of side effects that we may face. There are real differences of opinion between populists, like Steve Bannon, and tech oligarchs, like Elon Musk, so there will be unexpected policy battles over things like H-1B visas. We don’t yet know what the balance between Big Tech feudalism and the politics of protectionism and nationalism will look like.

Douthat: You should never underestimate the ability of the Republicans to implement “regulatory and tax cuts” in response to any political events. We have a very different mix of forces on Trump’s trail this time, from the overwhelming success of the vice president to the new entrants to revolutionary politics, Musk and the so-called tech right. But Musk seems so drunk on Paul Ryanism on budget matters, Republicans in Congress are still Republicans, so it will be … at least. (Whether Musk can make deep cost-cutting happen again — one has to wonder.)

In some cases, however, a change of country is important. Trump has more room for mass deportations not only because corporate America and Big Tech are on his side, but also because the Biden administration is overseeing such a dramatic increase in illegal immigration that deportations are more prominent than ever, too. there are many people who have arrived recently, who do not have deep ties to their communities, who are reasonable targets for such an effort. That doesn’t mean his administration won’t go overboard and back down – it’s entirely possible. But the past four years have shifted immigration politics further to the right than it was after Trump’s last victory.

Goldberg: I agree with Ross that deregulation and tax cuts will probably be the main accomplishment, if you want to call it that, of the new administration. It’s interesting to me that, after all the talk about Trump doing away with Paul Ryanism, his organization is now full of people who dream up the most brutal forms of economic impotence.