Why Biden’s Ukraine Victory Was Zelensky’s Loss
WRussia attacked Ukraine almost three years ago, President Joe Biden set three goals for the US response. The victory of Ukraine was not among them. The rhetoric the White House used to describe its mission at the time—to support Ukraine “as long as it takes”—was deliberately vague. It also raised the question: As long as it takes to do what?
“We were deliberately not talking about territorial limits,” said Eric Green, who served on Biden’s National Security Council at the time, overseeing Russia policy. The US, in other words, did not promise to help Ukraine recover all the land that Russia had taken, and certainly not the large areas of eastern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula that were taken in its first invasion in 2014. The reason was simple, Green said. : in the view of the White House, doing so was beyond the power of Ukraine, even with strong help from the West. “That would not be a success story in the end. The most important goal was for Ukraine to survive as an independent, democratic country free to pursue integration with the West.”
That was one of three goals set by Biden. He also demanded that the US and its allies remain united, and insisted on avoiding a direct conflict between Russia and NATO. Looking back on his leadership during the war in Ukraine — which will surely shape his legacy as a politician — Biden has accomplished those three goals. But success on those limited terms gives little satisfaction even to his closest friends and mentors. “Unfortunately, it’s the kind of success you don’t feel good about,” Green said in an interview with TIME. “Because there is a lot of suffering in Ukraine and a lot of uncertainty about where it will end up.”
For the Ukrainian people, the disillusionment with Biden has been present during the attack, and they expressed it more clearly since the US presidential election ended in the victory of Donald Trump. In a podcast broadcast in early January, President Volodymyr Zelensky said the US had not done enough under Biden to impose sanctions against Russia and provide Ukraine with weapons and security guarantees. “With all due respect to the United States and the administration,” Zelensky told Lex Fridman, “I don’t want the same situation we got with Biden. I’m asking for sanctions now, please, and weapons now.”
The criticism was pointed in an unusual way, and it seems all the more surprising given how much support the US has given Ukraine during the Biden administration – $66 billion in military aid alone since the February 2022 invasion of Russia, according to the US State Department. Combine that with all the aid Congress has authorized for Ukraine’s economic, humanitarian, and other needs, and the total comes to nearly $183 billion as of last September, according to Ukraine Oversight, a US government watchdog created in 2023 to monitor and respond. . all this help.
However, Zelensky and other allies insist that the US has been very cautious in standing up to Russia, especially when it comes to giving Ukraine a clear path to NATO membership. “It is very important that we have a common vision for the security future of Ukraine – in the EU and in NATO,” the Ukrainian president said during a visit to the White House in September.
During that trip, Zelensky gave Biden a detailed list of demands that he described as a “victory plan” for Ukraine. Besides asking for an invitation to join NATO, the plan called on the US to strengthen Ukraine’s position in the war with a massive influx of new weapons and permission to use them deep into Russian territory. By then, Biden had announced that he would not run for re-election, and Ukrainians hoped that his limp status would free him to make bold decisions, in part to protect his legacy on foreign affairs. “For us his legacy is controversial,” a senior member of Zelensky’s Washington team told TIME. “How will history remember you?”
The appeals received mixed reception. On the question of Ukraine’s NATO membership, Biden would not budge. But he signed for years the White House has rejected as too dangerous. In November, the US allowed Ukraine to use American missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. And in January, the Biden administration imposed tough sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, including a “shadow ship” of tankers that Russia has used to ship its oil.
While these decisions fell short of what Zelensky wanted, they helped Biden make the case during his final foreign policy speech that the US met its goals in defending Ukraine. However, he remained cautious, not to promise that Ukraine will regain its territory, or live until the end of this war. Russian President Vladimir Putin “has so far failed to win over Ukraine,” Biden said in a speech at the State Department on Jan. 13. “Today, Ukraine is still a free, independent, powerful country – opportunities for a bright future. .”
The future that Zelensky and many of his countrymen envision is one in which Russia is defeated. But in rallying the world to fight, the goal that Biden included in his goals is that protecting Ukraine from Russia is not the same as defeating Russia. So it’s not surprising if that goal remains out of Zelensky’s reach.
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