Israel’s longest war to date has failed to destroy its arch-enemy, Hamas, which, despite heavy losses, has framed the Gaza ceasefire as its own victory – and Israel’s failure.
Soon after the operation began on Sunday, masked gunmen emerged from vehicles roaming the devastated streets of Gaza and celebrated. Members of the elite unit were in full uniform in Al Saraya Square in Gaza City during the hostage transfer. It was a reminder to Hamas that its armed wing was still here 15 months after Israel began to destroy them.
One of the main goals of Hamas in taking about 250 hostages during its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 was to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. When Israel struck Gaza in response, Hamas vowed not to return the hostages until Israel withdrew its forces from the enclave, ended the war entirely, and allowed reconstruction.
After fighting for more than a year, Hamas and Israel in recent days reached a phased agreement that will see the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, in addition to a 42-day moratorium and the influx of aid. The deal also opens the door to further negotiations that could lead to a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire.
“(The agreement) fulfills all these conditions … the opposition has achieved what the Palestinian people want,” senior Hamas member Osama Hamdan told Al Jazeera after the agreement.
Khalil Al Hayya, the main negotiator of Hamas, in his speech on Wednesday said that Israel has failed to achieve its military objectives and praised the armed wing of Hamas, the Al Qassam Brigades, whose spokesman Abu Obaida praised the war in Gaza as “incitement”. future generations. Israel’s main goal in this war was to eliminate Hamas.
Some Israeli ministers, lawmakers and a small minority of the hostages’ families view the acceptance of the deal as a defeat for the Israelis. Right-wing minister Itamar Ben Gvir and his party resigned from the government and the Knesset (parliament), calling the deal a “surrender.” His right-wing counterpart, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called it a “disaster” and the military’s military group called it “The Surrender Deal.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, center, convenes his security cabinet to vote on the ceasefire agreement on Jan. 17, 2025. – Koby Gideon/GPO/AP
“When you see … the dancing in Gaza, the celebrations in the villages of Judea and Samaria – you understand which side is committed to this agreement,” Ben Gvir said in a statement on Thursday. Judea and Samaria is what Israel calls the West Bank.
But the majority of Israelis accept the deal, including most of the hostages’ families, Israeli President Isaac Herzog and the political opposition. Netanyahu’s office said after the security cabinet approved the agreement that the prime minister “supports the realization of the war’s objectives.”
A neon sign referring to Israeli hostages held in Gaza atop the Charles Bronfman Auditorium in HaBima Square in Tel Aviv on December 9, 2023. – Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images
A source familiar with the matter told CNN that Netanyahu told the ministers that the US had given assurances “that if Hamas breaks a certain section of the agreement, Israel can start fighting again.”
‘The survival of Hamas is the defeat of Israel’
Israel’s response to Hamas for the October 7 attack was intense. It subjected Gaza to the worst bombing campaign in the enclave’s history, killing tens of thousands of Palestinians and displacing hundreds of thousands more, most of whom were forced to live in tents with little food and inadequate medical care.
Israel has also inflicted heavy casualties on Hamas, killing its top leadership, including the mastermind of the October 7 attack Yahya Sinwar, and claiming that they have killed thousands of the group’s fighters. It did not tire in removing the emerging activists from the previously cleansed areas, all the while fighting, and finally defeating, Hezbollah of Lebanon in the north, which had opened a new front against Israel in support of Gaza.
Hamas, which was once under military and political control in Gaza, has shrunk to a fraction of its former self after Israel’s 15-month campaign, and with its regional allies Hezbollah and Iran greatly reduced, the group has become fragmented.
Displaced Palestinians return to the war-torn Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip on January 19, 2025, shortly before a ceasefire was implemented. – Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP/Getty Images
However, the organization has continued to present itself to the Palestinians as an armed opposition group against Israel, and has replenished its ranks by recruiting almost as many new soldiers as it has lost.
“Every time Israel ends military operations and retreats, Hamas terrorists regroup and rise again because there is nothing else to fill the void,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a recent Atlantic Council comment.
“Of course, we are checking that Hamas has recruited almost as many soldiers as it has lost. That is the way to endless rebellion and endless war. “
Tahani Mustafa, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), says the suffering caused by the Israeli war on Palestinians in Gaza creates fertile ground for human trafficking.
“You can see recruitment very well because if there is work and violence you can find compatibility there,” he told CNN. “How can you expect a lot of people in Gaza who have lost everything to just lie down? It is a fight for survival. Groups like Hamas provide (Palestinians) with the means to do that.”
In his remarks to the Atlantic Council, Blinken said that the US has emphasized to the Israeli government “that Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone, that without a clear, post-conflict plan and a credible political rise for the Palestinians, Hamas is an abomination.” and dangerous will grow again.”
Hamas promises to rebuild
The governance of post-war Gaza remains unsettled, perhaps due to doubts about whether a ceasefire will go beyond the first phase. The ultimate goal of Israel’s war is the complete destruction of Hamas. But Hamas seems unconcerned, suggesting that its elements will take part in rebuilding the devastated area. “All people, and the resistance as part of them, will start rebuilding what was destroyed,” Hamas’ Hamdan told Al Jazeera.
Hamdan emphasized that whatever the outcome, the next day in Gaza will remain the same as the previous one.
“The next day, like today, like the day before … will be the day of Palestine,” Hamdan said.
Members of the International Committee of the Red Cross speak to fighters of the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, in Saraya Square in western Gaza City on January 19, 2025. – Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP via Getty Images
Although Hamas may claim victory, it has failed to force Israel to lift its crippling blockade of Gaza and has overseen Israeli strikes that have killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and rendered Gaza lifeless. The October 7 attack, and the ensuing war, had a devastating effect, dramatically changing the balance of power in the region and reshaping the region.
Hamas does not see its survival as a goal in this war, but in Israel, the group’s survival can be considered “defeat,” said Mustafa of the ICG.
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