Back in January, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported on the future of the Athletics, suggesting a major jump in payroll. However, Rosenthal himself expressed serious doubts that any of it would actually happen.
“According to a source briefed on their plans,” Rosenthal wrote at the time, “the A’s project fee is between $130 million and $150 million during the ramp-up period before they move to their new park, and then $170 million-plus once they are set up.” in their court with a strong roof.”
Rosenthal remained skeptical of his feelings until he called the episode “Why I always doubt the A’s grandiose Vegas plans.” The skepticism, from Rosenthal or anyone else reading it, was understandable and completely understandable. Owner John Fisher did little to earn any benefit of the doubt. In fact, he had given many people to do the opposite.
Since Fisher took over as the team’s managing partner in November 2016, the A’s have arguably received more attention for their Las Vegas streak than their performance on the field. They put together a great run from 2018 to 2020, making the playoffs three years in a row. But when their win total dipped modestly to 86 in 2021, it was time for a full-blown fire sale. Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea again Matt Olson were sold before the 2022 season, with Sean Murphy, Cole Irvin, Frankie Montas and others to follow.
The A’s have been one of the worst teams in baseball for the past three years and the headlines have been about the team abandoning their fans in and around Oakland, fleeing east. The plan is to open a new stadium in Las Vegas for the 2028 season, with a three-year stop at the Triple-A ballpark in West Sacramento. The team seemed to have no interest in staying in Oakland, as negotiations for a new arena did not yield much. And talks about staying beyond the end of the lease, even temporarily, hence the temporary move to West Sacramento.
Given the way the franchise has behaved, it’s natural to doubt that a major pivot is coming. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their payroll has been in the bottom third of the league for more than a decade, including dead last two years ago and 29th in 2022.
Getting to the range described by Rosenthal above would be a huge leap. The club had a salary of $61MM in 2024, so we are talking more than double that. The franchise’s record payout was $92MM in 2019, so the numbers raised are close to doubling that.
While that kind of jump would be extreme, it’s impossible to imagine a scenario where Fisher is more motivated to support the Las Vegas Athletics than he is the Oakland Athletics. Even if he doesn’t care about the team or its fans in a direct way, there is a lack of business. If you’ve seen the movie Major League, you get the idea here. The recent lack of investment in the club may have been a deliberate way to reduce fan engagement, thus creating reasons for the move.
After going through all the hassle of moving a club, all the paperwork and meetings involved, you’re no doubt hoping for some sort of profit at some point. Per Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the Fisher family is willing to put down the nearly $1.5 billion needed to build the stadium. Akers says US Bank reviewed the Fisher family’s finances and “concluded that the Fishers have more than enough assets to finance the construction of the stadium.”
That’s not particularly surprising, considering the family situation. John’s parents Donald and Doris founded the Gap, a clothing chain. Donald died in 2009 but Forbes lists the family’s net worth at less than $9 billion, while John Fisher himself is listed at just over $3 billion.
That gives them a lot of ability to pay for the stadium, but it seems fair to assume that they’re not doing it out of the kindness of their hearts and thinking they’ll get that money back one day. It is thought that the Vegas setting may mean the club relies more on tourists to come to games as opposed to locals, compared to other franchises. If so, there may be an incentive to make an extra effort to sign stars and generate interest outside of Vegas. Many clubs are hemorrhaging TV money as the cable model collapses and the A’s are reportedly getting $70MM as part of their 2024 deal. That deal is supposed to expire if the club leaves the Bay Area, although it is reported that it may be able to be renewed. West Sacramento years, although it may have been at a lower price point.
They will probably get a new Vegas streaming deal down the line, but probably not at that price point. That will put a lot of pressure on the club to make money by not going. Their new stadium only plans to hold 33,000 people, which will be their lowest capacity and almost half of the stadium they are leaving. If they want to charge more for tickets, they will need more demand. Fair enough for ownership, that need could be huge from the start, so winning some games while in West Sacramento would be a priority.
We’ll never know if this is really the case, but it’s probably worth considering. The family size that allows fishermen to afford the cost of the field also allows them to pay higher fees than before. They can just decide to be a mid-market team if they want to. Many will take a “believe it when I see it” approach to this speculative situation and that is probably the wisest position to take, but there is an argument that it is in the Fishermen’s best interest to take this approach. Even if you’re the type of fan who sees John Fisher as a cold-blooded person with no warm feelings for baseball or people, which is understandable if you’re from Oakland and he stole your team, that wouldn’t be against him putting a good team on the field since that would be a good business decision.
All of this is a big if, but it can have significant consequences if there are even half-truths within it, including shaking up baseball’s winter landscape. Another club willing to shell out big contracts would be good for players, as another bidder always helps with the supply and demand equation.
RosterResource says the club is slated for $37MM next year, meaning it will have to spend more than $20MM just to reach the final 2024 figure. Most free agents won’t be happy playing in a Triple-A park, so the A’s may have to wait out the market and give away guys who don’t get the contract they wanted. Taking unwanted contracts from another club in exchange would be another option to increase salary, without the player having a say in it. But that can work and benefit players, as another club can use their spending power to spend on someone else.
The American League West already has four aggressive teams in it. The Astros have been one of the strongest clubs of the past decade. The Rangers have struggled in recent years, leading to a World Series title. The Angels haven’t been successful recently but it’s not for lack of trying, as they’ve been a top ten club for most of this century. The Mariners don’t have the biggest payrolls but they are one of the most active clubs in the trade market and have finished above .500 for four consecutive years. If the A’s take things up a notch, they could raise the level of competition in an already strong division.
Ownership behavior aside, there have been encouraging signs on the field recently for the A’s. They went 39-37 over the final three months of 2024, fueled by strong play from the boys Mason Miller, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler and many others.
If the club didn’t care about how he did during his three-year stint in West Sacramento, it would make sense to sell Rooker, who is said to be free after 2027. manager David Forst recently said that they are not planning to sell him this winter. That being said, they don’t need to save money because there’s almost nothing on the books, but trading Rooker could bring in a bunch of prospects they decide not to get. This is in line with Forst recently saying that the club is focused on him. adding to the big league roster, not trading big players for prospects.
Whether the club has enough talent to compete in the future is obviously debatable and depends on many factors. One of them is how much the club spends on strengthening the list at that time. Most people’s expectation seems to be that the A’s will be less expensive than they were in Oakland, but you can imagine that they were deliberately waiting to get out of town before opening the purse strings. This will be especially boring for fans in the Bay Area who have watched this club starve to death, and then start sitting on the hog after the scrimmage. But after how badly Fisher had already been hurt, would they really be surprised?
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