Somaliland will enter elections between Ethiopia-Somalia and port agreement | Election News

Amid the tension in the region, voters in the region that called themselves Somaliland will vote on Wednesday in the fourth national election since 1991 when Somalia left. Although Somaliland now has its own government, parliament, currency, passports and other features of an independent country, however, its sovereignty is not recognized internationally as Somalia continues to see it as part of its territory.

In the capital Hargeisa, supporters of the ruling Kulmiye (Peace, Unity and Development) party lined the streets wearing green and yellow shirts, singing victory songs, women cheering as the campaign ended last week.

Acting President Muse Bihi Abdi is seeking a renewed five-year mandate for elections, which have been delayed by two years due to timing and financial constraints, according to authorities. His main challenger is former parliament speaker and former opposition representative Abdirahman “Irro” Mohamed Abdullahi of the Somaliland National Party, also known as the Wadani party, who has promised more roles for women and youth in his government.

Rising living costs and territorial tensions with rebels in the disputed Las Anods, claimed by Puntland, another autonomous region that broke away from Somalia in 1998, have emerged as key issues in the run-up to the election.

The worst thing is that the vote is also shaped by the weight of the candidates around the world and how that can affect Somaliland, which wishes to be recognized as an independent country.

President Abdi has upheld his landmark “port-for-recognition” (MOU) cooperation agreement with neighboring Ethiopia, which he and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed in January. The proposed deal would allow large, landlocked Ethiopia to use Somaliland’s Red Sea port of Berbera. In return, Ethiopia said it would conduct a “serious review” of Somaliland’s bid for official recognition. Literally, Ethiopia has not specifically said that it will recognize Somaliland. However, the authorities in Hargeisa see the recognition at last as a result.

The historic maritime MOU has sparked outrage in Somalia, and relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have nearly collapsed. In October, Ethiopian ambassador Ali Mohamed Adan was expelled from Somalia in the latest in a long line of political disputes.

Irro played a role in the decline, accusing Abdi of being a divisive actor.

Egypt – Ethiopia’s longtime rival – and Turkey, which is close to Somalia, have joined the conflict. Turkey has taken a peacemaking role by facilitating negotiations, while Egypt supports Somalia by providing military aid.

“The situation has escalated as other actors have stepped in,” Hargeisa-based political analyst Mousafa Ahmad told Al Jazeera. “I’m not sure how the deal will go. I would say it is very unexpected.” There is currently no set date for the deal to be officially finalized.

Port agreement: International recognition of Somaliland?

Ethiopia, Africa’s largest landlocked country by population (over 120 million) relies only on the small ports of neighboring Djibouti to reach the Gulf of Aden for a long time. After a thirteen-year war, Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving the country without access to the coastal areas, something the authorities have always considered a lack of “superpower” in the region.

Addis Ababa has since sought direct access to important sea routes close to it, looking to break away from Djibouti’s offerings. Last October, Prime Minister Abiy told parliament that Ethiopia was surrounded by water but remained “dry”. Access to the Red Sea and the Nile will protect the country’s future, he said.

Under the Somaliland agreement, Ethiopia will take over a 50-year contract for Port Berbera, giving Addis Ababa 20km (12.5 miles) of Red Sea coastline for maritime trade and a shipyard. The port was redeveloped in 2018 by Dubai-based company and port manager DP World, which holds a 51 percent stake in its operations. Hargeisa has a 30 percent stake in the public-private partnership, while Addis Ababa now has 19 percent.

In addition, Hargeisa will also acquire part of state-owned Ethiopian Airlines, according to the January deal, although details on this part of the deal are still sketchy.

Official recognition from Ethiopia could pave the way for international recognition, some analysts say, and lead other countries to trade with Somaliland or open embassies there.

For Hargeisa, the deal seems as good as done. “We are ready and waiting for Ethiopia to sign the agreement,” President Abdi told reporters at his campaign rally earlier this month. Authorities are trying to market the port as an alternative route to the Suez Canal where ships have faced attacks by Houthi rebels. Locally, it will be a “game changer” for the economy Abdi said, and is expected to unlock an estimated $3.4bn.

A change of power is unlikely to restore local enthusiasm for the deal, analysts say, although the Wadani group has criticized Abdi for handling the deal with Ethiopia in a divisive manner. “On the Somaliland side, the agreement is still ongoing and will continue even if there is a change in government and Wadani wins the election,” Ahmad said.

When that will happen is another question entirely, however. Amid the regional impasse, Ethiopia has not set a date for when the lease will come into effect or when it will officially recognize Somaliland – in what some say could be an attempt to slow the process and not quickly escalate tensions.

Enemies in the alliance?

One day after the announcement of the Somaliland port agreement in January, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (MFA) in Mogadishu issued a statement calling it “extremely bad” and a “clear violation” by Ethiopia, and that Somalia will not concede “one inch”. ” of the area.

“We will not stand by and watch our sovereignty be put at risk,” said President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, speaking to lawmakers in parliament. On the same day, the Ethiopian ambassador was sent home.

Somalia has also turned to Egypt – already at loggerheads with Ethiopia over a controversial $4bn dam project on the Blue Nile. The dam dispute dates back to 2011 when Ethiopia began building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) near Guba in the hopes of generating about 5,000 megawatts of additional electricity from the Nile – double the current supply for its electricity-starved population.

Egypt, which also relies on the Nile River, strongly opposes the project, saying that the dam will destroy existing water for agricultural and domestic use. Negotiations between the two countries have stalled, with Cairo accusing Addis Ababa of being stubborn and threatening to “defend Egypt”. Ethiopia insisted and started producing electricity from the dam in 2022.

In August, Egyptian President Adel Fattah el-Sisi signed a defense agreement with Mohamud of Somalia to strengthen security. At a conference in Asmara in October, el-Sisi and Mohamud joined Eritrean President Isaiahs Afwerki to pledge greater regional security cooperation.

Cairo has since brought heavy military equipment, including artillery and armored vehicles, loaded onto dozens of flights to Mogadishu in August and September, which appears to have fueled the violence that has enraged the Ethiopian government.

This military agreement comes just as the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) ends this year. The peacekeeping force, supported by the African Union, is largely led by Ethiopia, which provides 4,300 troops. It began in 2007 to protect Somalia from the armed group al-Shabab. Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti and Kenya also contributed troops.

Mogadishu has announced that Ethiopia is the only country that will not be included in the separate mission that will begin its work on January 1, 2025. Meanwhile, Cairo has announced that it is willing to invest about 5,000 workers to join this new framework. Egypt was not involved in the first mission.

Other countries have also joined the ranks. Turkey, Somalia’s long-time ally, has tried to play peacemaker, mediating several talks in Ankara that have stalled and are now permanently postponed. Turkey maintains a military base in Mogadishu.

Conflicts between Djibouti and Ethiopia are also increasing. Djibouti, like Somaliland, lies to the east of Ethiopia and shares a border with the rebel region. The small country relies on its shipping industry for revenue and is angered by the proposed accord between Somaliland and Ethiopia, which sees it taking away a major source of revenue. Currently, Djibouti handles more than 90 percent of Ethiopia’s maritime trade.

Officials there have also criticized Hargeisa’s allegations that he is funding, training and arming Somaliland rebel groups from Issa and Gadabursi who want to control the area. The allegations were made after the port’s January MOU.

‘No recognition, no agreement’

Analysts warn that tensions could rise to the point of a possible war between the region’s biggest powers – Ethiopia and Egypt – if the situation worsens.

“If the Egyptians put their boots on the ground and deploy troops on the border with Ethiopia, that could cause the two to go head-to-head,” Rashid Abdi, a Kenya-based analyst with Sahan Research, told Reuters news agency. “The threat of a direct shooting war is low, but a proxy conflict is possible.”

To ease the tension, some experts warned Ethiopia against legally recognizing Somaliland while still leasing its port.

“Ethiopia can enter the sea through Somaliland without official recognition,” wrote analyst Endalcachew Bayeh in the academic book, The Conversation, adding that both powers should reconsider their strategies and “hold back”.

Although Ethiopia sent an ambassador to Hargeisa in January, shortly after the port MOU was signed, making it the first country to do so, it has not yet signed the final lease agreement for the port and has not taken any other important steps.

Meanwhile, Somaliland authorities insist they are ready to officially start a port deal with Ethiopia despite regional backlash. In an apparent show of solidarity with its new partner, Somaliland closed the Egyptian cultural center in Hargeisa in September.

Abolishing the recognition agreement is not a start in Somaliland, says analyst Ahmed.

“The Somaliland government and people are clear about this – respect is the beginning of cooperation,” he said. “From Somaliland’s point of view, there is no recognition, no agreement.”