The Tigers recently attempted to extend the reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubalaccording to a report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, but Petzold suggests that this offer from Detroit was not competitive and the parties ultimately did not come close to completing the deal. It’s understandable that Detroit would be interested in locking up their ace long-term, as they’re just getting into their competitive window and only have two years of team control over the southpaw left before he leaves in free agency. That being said, Skubal is a client of Scott Boras, who often encourages his players to explore free agency to increase value, and the rest have plenty of potential coming off a 2024 season that saw him win the AL Triple Crown and become a starter. who won the team’s first Cy Young award since Max Scherzer in 2013.
That doesn’t mean an extension isn’t possible, though. A number of Boras’ high-profile clients, incl Jose Altuve again Xander Bogaertspreviously signed extensions with their clubs before exploring free agency. And there’s precedent for signing extensions for Cy Young-caliber signees, too. The Tigers signed a future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander even extended twice during his 13 years in Detroit, the first was a five-year, $80MM contract that bought out his final years of arbitration and three free years before the 2010 season, and the second was a five-year signed deal. before the 2013 season that covered the 2015-19 seasons and guaranteed Verlander another $140MM.
While Verlander’s first contract stands as a direct point of comparison to Skubal’s given that the lefty also has two years left in free agency and Verlander had just finished third in AL Cy Young award voting before the deal was signed, that deal is also for ten years. half an age at this point and prices around the league have risen significantly in the years since then. Given that, Verlander’s second extension could serve as a more accurate point of comparison when discussing the possibility of another Cy Young winner extending his stay with the Tigers in light of high-profile deals like theirs. Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM), Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM), and Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM) signed over the past decade.
Perhaps the best comparison to Skubal’s situation can be found in the right hand Jacob deGrom. deGrom signed an extension with the Mets before the 2019 season that covers the 2020-23 seasons. The deal guaranteed him $120.5MM in new money and included a 2024 club option that would have increased the total guaranteed to $153MM over five years. More importantly, the deal gave deGrom an option to opt out after the 2022 season. That deal put him in a situation almost identical to the one Skubal and the Tigers find themselves in now; deGrom was just two years out of free agency and had earned his first career Cy Young award on the heels of a breakout season in which he posted a 1.70 ERA and 1.98 FIP in 217 career innings.
That season was more dominant than the one Skubal posted in 2024, and deGrom then had a less scrutinized injury history than Skubal currently has. While those factors would suggest that a deGrom deal should be a target for the lefty to shoot for, he has one major factor on his side that could significantly increase his earning power past even deGrom’s: age. Skubal just turned 28 last week, but deGrom was nearly three years older than Skubal during his Cy Young-winning age-30 season back in 2018. In other words, Skubal is not only younger now than deGrom was at the time of his extension, but he will actually still be younger than deGrom at the time of the deal when he is expected to reach free agency after the 2026 season.
Being able to market a 30-year-old season in free agency is a huge boost to a player’s overall value on the open market, especially for pitchers teams are often reluctant to guarantee long deals. Cole’s massive nine-year deal with the Yankees came before his age-29 season, suggesting a $300MM payday would be a long time for Skubal, but Strasburg was a year older than Skubal when he hit free agency when he earned $245 his. MM contract on the open market and even had a history of similar injuries to the southpaw. Strasburg’s deal was among the worst contracts in recent memory due to subsequent injuries, which would make clubs reluctant to repeat it, but it’s easy to imagine Skubal making a deal north of $200MM if he can reach free agency during the 2026-27 season. offseason.
That’s a cheap price for the Tigers to contend with, but it’s possible he could put a compelling offer on the table. After all, the club only has two players who have signed guaranteed contracts for the 2026 season: Javier Baez again Colt Keith. Keith won’t make more than $5.3MM per year until his club option for the 2030 season is picked up, while Baez’s $23.3MM AAV will go off the books following the 2027 season. For a team that has been able to pay high annual salaries to both Verlander and Miguel Cabrera ten years ago, it should be reasonably manageable to make an AAV in the $25-30MM range for Skubal.
Skubal is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make $8MM in compensation this year, and will likely be in line for a healthy raise next winter. If the Tigers were willing to guarantee Skubal a combined $25MM over his last two outings through arbitration, perhaps a seven-year, $175MM extension would make sense for both parties. Such a deal would guarantee Skubal a full payday for his age-34 season approaching the $200MM he would hope to be granted in free agency, while allowing the Tigers to lock up their ace during his prime. It’s also possible that Skubal could take a page from deGrom’s playbook and offer a full guarantee to get a second bite at the apple in the form of an exit, perhaps following his age-32 season in 2029.
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