The Blue Jays love the free agent outfielder Anthony SantanderUSA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Nightengale also mentioned that the club is after top players like them Corbin Burns again Fried Max. The club has previously been linked to free agents such as Fried and Blake Snell in recent weeks, so Burnes being on the list is also in line with those interests.
Connecting with Santander makes sense. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco predicted the Jays would sign Santander when our Top 50 Free Agents list came out earlier this month. The Jays are eligible for an outfielder and a power bat, two boxes Santander will check.
Right now, the Jays have it George Springer again Daulton Varsho as both established the major leagues in their outfield. Varsho underwent shoulder surgery in September and is likely to miss the 2025 season opener. Springer is now 35 years old and has seen his wRC+ drop for five straight years now. He had a wRC+ of 155 in 2019 but that number has gone up to 143, 140, 133, 104 and 95 in recent years.
In addition to those two, the Jays have several other theoretical options to take playing time on the turf. Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonathan Clase, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger again Manager Berroa all outside options on the 40-man roster, but not much certainty there. Schneider is the only major leaguer with more than 81 games in his career and is coming off a frustrating season. In short, there is plenty of room for the Jays to make an outfield addition.
Broadly speaking, a pop home run would be welcome on the list. The Jays were in the middle of the pack in terms of wRC+ and on-base percentage in 2024 but were 26th in the majors in home runs, just ahead of the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox. Only six boys in the club achieved double figures Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the only Blue Jay to reach 20 dingers on the year.
Santander can provide that power, as he recently hit 44 home runs this past year. With 105 homers over the past three seasons, he is sixth in the majors in that span behind all star sluggers. Aaron is the judge, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso again Matt Olson. The Jays have a number of key right-handed hitting contributors, such as Guerrero, Springer, Bo Bichette again Alejandro Kirkso Santander’s ability to hit the switches probably adds to the hype. He’s not a great outfielder but he’s slashed .244/.317/.478 over the past three years with a 124 wRC+ and the Jays don’t have a full-time designated hitter, which would allow them to mitigate the decline in his glove work .
It seems fair to conclude that Santander will be the fallback plan should the Jays fail to land Juan Soto. The Jays are one of the clubs still in the Soto mix, and offers are expected to come in this week.
Soto ticks many of the same boxes as Santander, as he is a powerful left-handed outfielder, but he is an intriguing free-swinger for a number of reasons. Soto is very young, as he is now 26 years old and Santander is 30 years old. Soto’s career 18.8% walk rate is nearly double the league average and higher than his 17% strikeout rate. Santander, on the other hand, passes for free at a clip of 7.3%.
Based on that difference, Soto will be Plan A for many clubs, who will then look at Santander as a potential safety and other free agents who play outside. Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar and others. While MLBTR projected Soto at $600MM guaranteed, Santander was eyed for an $80MM deal over four years, apparently too affordable.
Santander has been linked to the Yankees this winter as one of the many players the Yanks could turn to if they can’t get Soto and the Jays may view their situation the same way. Soto is highly expected to receive some kind of record-breaking contract, so teams will want to examine their payrolls and consider the implications of such a contract before turning to other moves.
On the pitching side, the Jays have been linked to several starting pitchers already, as mentioned. The Jays have three top veterans on their way, no Kevin Gausman, José Berríos again Chris Bassitt all are under contract until 2025. Bowden Francis looks like he’s got a replacement gig for his solid second half in 2024. Candidates for fifth place include Yariel Rodríguez again Jake Blossbut Rodríguez also has a lot of relief experience and could be in the bullpen. Bloss still has limited options and experience, he hasn’t pitched much in the majors or minors.
Adding a pitcher like Fried or Snell or Burnes would obviously strengthen the team. Burnes has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the past five years, though he hasn’t hit a home run in the last two years. From 2020 to 2022, he had a 2.62 earned run average, a 33.4% strikeout rate, a 6.4% walk rate and a 47.6% ground ball rate. In the most recent two seasons, it was a 3.15 ERA, his strikeout rate dropped to 24.3%.
That’s a concern, but Burnes remains the top center available in free agency this offseason. MLBTR projected Burnes to be worth $200MM over seven years, Snell at $160MM over five and Fried at $156MM over six years.
There are many ways this could play out, but it appears that the Jays are on the upswing after missing out on Ohtani last winter and having a disappointing season in 2024. It was also suggested that the Jays might be as aggressive this offseason as they are. several pivot points are possible. Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt are all set for free agency in 2025, while team president Mark Shapiro and manager John Schneider are also entering the final years of their deals. General manager Ross Atkins is under contract until 2026 although it has been suggested he may be under pressure to bring on next season.
The Jays had an Opening Day cap hit of $225MM last year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and RosterResource currently projects them at $189MM in 2025. Shapiro previously said he didn’t expect the club’s salary cap to increase or decrease significantly from 2024, so the Jays could have something closer to $35MM to spend this offseason on a notable free agent.
Other reporting, including from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, indicated the ownership may have had a Soto and non-Soto budget. The club was apparently willing to go to extremes financially to sign Ohtani last winter but didn’t end up reallocating that money to other players after signing with the Dodgers. Similarly, the payment ceiling can be raised to accommodate the Soto deal but not otherwise.
Regardless of how much money they end up spending this winter, the draft pick will be another expense that the club should consider. Each of Soto, Burnes, Fried and Santander declined the qualifying offer, as did other non-targets such as Hernández or Willy Adams. Snell was ineligible for QO this offseason because he already declined it last year.
The Jays are believed to be subject to the competitive balance tax in 2024 by trading veterans at the deadline, which affects their penalties for signing a player who declines a qualifying offer. The tax-paying club must forfeit $1MM of international bonus cap space and its second and fifth top picks in the next draft. Should the Jays actually come in under the CBT line in 2024, those penalties would instead be $500K in cap space and a second best draft pick. In recent years, the Jays have been willing to sign players who declined qualifying offers, doing so with Springer and Bassitt.
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