The Red Sox are looking to improve their rotation this winter but it remains to be seen how that will play out. They have previously been linked to top free agents such as Corbin Burns, Fried Max again Blake Snelland the person who will trade Garrett Crochet.
This week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Sox are actually looking for those top free agents. MassLive’s Sean McAdam reports that the Sox continue to look into the reliever market while dealing with Juan Soto. They had some interest in the lefty Yusei Kikuchialthough it is not clear how strong that seed was and now he has a contract with the Angel. As for Crochet, McAdam reports that the Sox have let off the gas a little bit there, with some unknown teams getting “very aggressive” lately.
At the start of the season, baseball’s top executive Craig Breslow said the club will be looking to “raise the roof” in rotation and these plans are in line with that aim. Burnes, Fried and Snell all have long records of major league success, with Burnes having a Cy Young Award and Snell having two. Fried doesn’t have the hardware but has a 3.07 earned run average in just under 900 career innings. Crochet recently transitioned to the rotation in 2024 but did so with aplomb, posting a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate in 146 innings. .
Any of those pitchers would be great upgrades for Boston or any other club, though that would make them more popular. Besides the Sox, those pitchers have been linked to clubs like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees, Dodgers and Padres. There are plenty of other clubs that make sense, even if they weren’t clearly tied to those pitchers by rumor.
For the Sox to walk away with two of those players would make for a tough season, but that’s exactly what the club was aiming for. Both Breslow and CEO Sam Kennedy have commented suggesting that the club is planning to act boldly this winter, as Kennedy has recently said that paying a competitive balance tax is on the table. Many of the club’s fans will echo last year’s “full throttle” comments from chairman Tom Werner and how they didn’t get much action last winter, but the club are more specific this year. Kennedy has repeatedly said that the aim is to put together a club that will be able to win 90 to 95 games and take this division.
Spending money on free agents is one way they can do that. RosterResource projects the 2025 club to have a salary cap of $138MM, down from the $184MM spent starting in 2024, which itself is down from what they’ve spent over the past decade. RR puts the club’s CBT number at $171MM, which is $70MM below the lower limit.
There is plenty of room there for two significant contracts, although successfully signing Soto would obviously change the equation completely, given that he would be signing a record deal. Leaving that aside for now, big contracts for two big free agent starters are a possible outcome. As part of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, each of Burnes, Fried and Snell are targeted for contracts with average annual values between $26MM and $32MM. Putting two of those on Boston’s payroll wouldn’t even get them over the CBT line. They will likely make additions to the bullpen and possibly the position player group, but with the willingness to cross the line, all kinds of possibilities could be on the table for them.
Crochet can be very cheap from a financial perspective, with the biggest costs coming in the form of prospect capital. Having spent much of his career working in relief or injured, he has less than two years of club control but has been unable to raise his salary through the arbitration process. He made just $800K in 2024 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a raise of up to $2.9MM in 2025. He will be up for another promotion in 2026 before becoming a free agent.
Two years of an ace-caliber pitcher for that kind of money is worth a lot, which is why Crochet figures to be so popular in trade discussions. The Red Sox have a strong farm system and could get a deal done if they wanted to, though it appears that a mysterious club has approached them, according to McAdam’s report.
Meanwhile, Boston’s rotation projects will be discussed Tanner Houck, Brian Bello again Cutter Crawford. Houck had a breakout season in 2024 but may have run out of gas, as he had a 2.54 ERA in the first half and a 4.23 ERA in the second. Bello and Crawford are each coming off decent but not yet outstanding seasons, each finishing with an ERA in the 4.35-4.50 range. Lucas Giolito again Garrett Whitlock they may be in the mix in 2025 but are unknown numbers at this time as each underwent internal brace surgery in 2024.
Adding to that group will improve Boston’s chances in 2025 while the explosive guys like it Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts again Quinn Priester in depth roles, either in the minors or in the big league bullpen.
Interest in Kikuchi suggests the Sox are also open to some mid-market options. Now that Kikuchi is gone, other names may follow similar deals that include Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino and an old friend Nick Pivetta.
Qualifying offers will be a factor, depending on who the Sox ultimately sign. Snell, Eovaldi and Flaherty were ineligible for the QO, Snell and Eovaldi already received it because Flaherty was traded in the middle of the season. Burnes, Fried, Manaea and Severino declined QOs, meaning the Sox would have to give up the second best pick in next year’s draft and $500K in international bonus cap space to sign him. Pivetta declined a QO from the Red Sox, meaning they would be able to get compensation before the third round if he signs elsewhere, though they won’t get that if they end up re-signing.
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