Donald Trump posted significant gains in Orange County during the November election, but it wasn’t enough to win the increasingly purple state that has become a battleground between Republicans and Democrats — and a political rematch taking place across the country.
Kamala Harris won Orange County, but by a much tighter margin than Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020. When it comes to presidential politics, Orange County has favored Democrats since 2016, with growing blue areas like Santa Ana, Anaheim and Irvine leading red areas like Huntington Beach and southern Orange County.
But experts say the 2024 results offer warning signs for Democrats.
“What the early numbers show is that Donald Trump has come in with a minority of voters including big gains with Latino and Asian voters,” said Jeff Corless, former strategist for Orange County Dist. He said. Todd Spitzer. “What we’re hearing is that he’s made those same gains in other communities like Orange County across the country. He also benefited from traditional urban voters, who he is fighting against in 2020. “
Paul Mitchell, a Democratic data expert, said Trump may have done better in the district because of the lack of Democratic support this year compared to 2020, and voters familiar with — and possibly comfortable with — Trump because of their experience during his previous administration.
“It’s also possible that Trump is normal, in a weird way,” Mitchell said. “He has been in front of us in politics for ten years. Maybe voters like the economy better under Trump. “
In 2016, Clinton received about 100,000 more votes in Orange County than Trump, making her the first Democratic presidential candidate in the state to win the vote in 80 years. In 2020, Biden did even better, outscoring Trump by more than 137,500 votes. Now, Harris has edged out Trump, but the margin of victory tends to be tighter than seen in previous elections.
Votes in Orange County are still being counted and the final numbers are not required to be approved by the county until Dec. 5 and the district until Dec. 13. But it’s clear, experts say, that Trump has exploited the disillusionment felt by voters. unhappy with the way the country is and the economic pains that plague many living in the suburbs.
“People in the media and people like me still take Trump for granted, and the voters live in this time and the apocalypse hasn’t happened and they like the economy better,” said Rob Stutzman, a veteran GOP and lifelong Trump critic. advises former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
He noted that Trump’s improvement in Orange County was not an outlier.
“He’s done better — look how he’s done in New York, the Eastern Seaboard, Massachusetts,” Stutzman said. “There are red dots that haven’t been there a few decades ago.”
Still, there were bright spots for Democrats, especially being able to hold on to a congressional seat that became open because Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine pursued an unsuccessful Senate bid, and flipped the 45th Congressional District. In that race, Derek Tran, who ran for the first election, defeated Republican Representative Michelle Steel from Seal Beach in a tight race that was one of the most expensive races in the country.
A UC Irvine poll released last year conveyed a divide between Orange County voters, particularly Republicans and those who choose not to affiliate with a political party, who despite their optimism about Orange County and to some extent about California, did not have a good feeling about the party. America’s future.
“I [election] the results are a statement about people’s dissatisfaction with the current national administration rather than a positive statement about Trump or the Republicans,” said Jon Gould, dean of the School of Social Ecology at this university.
“This is not a sign that Orange County is suddenly a red state,” Gould said. “This is what it means to be a purple state.”
Michele Monda, a Republican who lives in the blue-collar town of Laguna Beach, voted for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 with her son and grandchildren in mind. High housing costs and lack of affordability have made it a challenge for middle-class couples, like his son and daughter-in-law, to build a life in many parts of California, including Orange County.
“Who’s watching them?” Monda said. “They can’t pass, and frankly, the Democrats don’t seem to care. Even though I know Trump is a billionaire, I think he understands the needs of the middle class.”
Economics and Trump’s stance on immigration were the main drivers of his vote. While he doesn’t always like Trump’s behavior, he likes his policies. Not surprisingly, he said, others in Orange County also turned to him.
“I think people have had enough of the Democrat party line, enough of the economy, enough of the whole platform. The things they promote don’t work,” said Monda. “I think the people of California are waking up.”
Trump’s advance in the district has sparked excitement among California Republicans who have been trying for years to strengthen their hold on Orange County as Democratic voter registration increases and the election becomes more competitive.
For decades, Orange County has been a stronghold — the birthplace of former President Nixon, the cradle of Ronald Reagan’s ascension to the governor’s mansion and then the White House, and, for decades, the namesake of the California Republican Party.
The county’s transformation over the past decade from deeply red to a more politically and demographically diverse area has been of public interest for years.
“Orange County is a battleground,” said Jon Fleischman, a Republican campaign strategist and executive director of the California GOP.
Trump’s growing popularity among Latinos and Asian Americans seen nationally may also be playing out in swing states like Orange County. For years, Republicans in the region have sought to attract Latinos and Asian Americans to their party with mixed success, and Trump’s performance may reflect gains among these voter groups, as well as black Americans. He also won over some urban women who defected to the Republican Party during his 2016 campaign and after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn federal protections for abortion access in 2022.
Democrats relied heavily on messages about the loss of reproductive rights during this year’s campaign, in television ads and during their convention to nominate Harris. However, Stutzman argued that the argument failed to resonate with urban women in affluent areas like Orange County the way Democrats had hoped.
“The majority of American women still have access to — most of them are able to have — abortions,” he said. “I don’t know if there’s any connection, any threat that their rights are being undermined more than they were.”
Although Harris won most of the votes in deep-blue California, Trump was on course to win the counties of Butte, Stanislaus, Fresno, Inyo, San Bernardino and Riverside, all areas that Biden carried in 2020. Trump also benefited from Silicon Valley and Los. Angeles County compared to 2016 and 2020.
“For Trump to win Orange County, he had to engage with minority voters, and he did that on issues that mattered to them and the struggles they faced,” Corless said.
Democrats’ ability to register voters in Orange County has also declined.
Between October 2022 and October 2024, the Democratic Party in Orange County grew by just over 3,100 voters. At the same time, the numbers of the Republican Party increased by 31,000 people, according to data from the California Secretary of State.
In years when GOP voter registration declined, the number of nonpartisan voters increased. Many longtime Republicans in Orange County, irritated by Trump’s outlandish rhetoric and policy positions, have dubbed themselves “Never Trumps.” But Orange County Republicans have made a concerted effort this cycle to re-register former GOP voters and push for early voting and mail-in ballots, a sign of how Trump’s opposition to these efforts is hurting the party in 2020.
“When Trump was first elected, he wasn’t everyone who liked ice cream, and I think you saw a lot of Republicans who decided to be independent,” Fleischman said. “I think once people decided they were OK with Trump, they were going back to the party.”
The Republican Party of Orange County even held a polling day on Oct. 11 where the offices of the Republican Party serve as designated polling stations. The move, he said at the time, made voting more accessible while “maintaining the integrity of the highest level of elections.”
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