It’s one year removed from the offseason in which the Padres changed the direction of their franchise by paying off payroll and trading a star. Juan Soto for the Yankees, San Diego finds itself in financial trouble again. The club is expected to maintain its level of earnings from 2024 to 2025; according to RosterResource, that’s a $169MM budget and luxury tax payment that falls below the starting cap (which sits at $241MM in 2025). Reaching that salary cap may be easier said than done, however, as the Padres are currently projected to be paid just under $210MM in 2025 with a luxury tax salary of $244M, just over the starting cap.
That leaves the club likely looking to reduce payroll by around $40MM this winter, and they will be hoping to add to the squad despite that reduction. The Padres will need to add at least one starter to match the trio Dylan Cease, Michael Kingagain Yu Darvish this winter, and travel Jurickson Profar it leaves a void in left field, not to mention the loss of actors David Peralta again Donovan Solano weaken the club’s roster at DH and on the bench. Of course, any players the club meets for salary reductions will certainly create new holes that need to be filled, leaving AJ Preller and the club’s front office in a pinch.
One route the Padres could use is to cut salary this year Luis Arraez. The club acquired the 27-year-old in May, and he has played well during his time in San Diego this year with a .318/.346/.398 slash line that was good for a 111 wRC+ and benefited him. third consecutive hitting title of his career. A pitcher who managed to drop his already impressive 10% strikeout rate from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this past year, Arraez has earned an incredible 3.4 % of his time with the team. Padres. As an above-average hitter who is more reliable than anyone else in the game when it comes to putting the ball on the ball, it’s easy to see why Arraez is attractive enough to teams where both the Marlins and Padres have given up valuable packages. finding him in recent years.
That preternatural ability to connect has been hampered by Arraez’s lack of plate discipline causing his walk rate to drop slightly in line with his strikeout rate over the years and a complete lack of power. Both of those flaws are on full display in 2024, as Arraez is walking at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of .078, both of which rank third-from-bottom among major league professional hitters. While it’s possible that the sixth injury Arraez has played this year before surgery in October may have affected him in the power department, even his career-high .115 ISO with the Marlins last year fell outside the bottom ten among professional hitters. Between those flaws in his hitting profile and his poor defense that limited him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s also easy to see why the Twins and Marlins were willing to part with him in the trade market in recent years.
Could Arraez make it three years in a row this winter? Doing so is perhaps the easiest way to reduce a significant amount of the Padres’ payroll. Cease and King are both rated by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for high arbitration salaries, but neither approaches the $14.6MM figure Arraez is currently slated for. Taking that money off the books would drop the Padres payroll to about $195MM. While San Diego will need to replace Arraez early next year, there are plenty of bats at the position including the former Padres. Josh Bell, Franceagain Anthony Rizzo The figure will be available through a relative deal this winter, meaning it should be easy for the club to replace Arraez on the roster and still have $10-12MM left over, not to mention that the return of Arraez’s services could help plug some holes. around or outside. Those motivations behind a potential deal were enough to place Arraez at No. 17 on MLBTR’s top 35 trades of the season.
That being said, trading Arraez isn’t the only option the Padres have as they look for ways to shed salary. He already indicated this winter that he would be open to extending the club this winter as he looks toward his final year under team control before being released in free agency, and the Padres have always worked out contracts that give the club more financial flexibility in the short term. -time and added security for the player in the past. That includes deals that come together just before a player hits free agency, like the extensions he gave Darvish and Manny Machado in recent years.
If Arraez is able to do it, it’s easy to imagine the Padres reloading the deal to significantly reduce his 2025 salary and/or offer a lower AAV for longer to get under the luxury tax threshold. As one example, a six-year contract worth $60MM would come with an AAV of only $10MM, allowing the club to shave ~$4.6MM off its expected luxury tax bill in 2025. Meanwhile, if the deal is structured in such a way that Arraez does. just $5MM in the first year of the deal followed by $11MM in salary over the entire contract, which would give the Padres about $10MM in cap space. 2025 salary compared to his arbitration salary- a value that isn’t that different from what they would save by trading him for a low cost veteran.
Those numbers are just speculation, and Arraez likely won’t want to sign a deal with such a low annual salary without first seeing what’s available to him on the open market. That’s not the only flaw in the Arraez extension system, either; while a deal with a structure similar to the one mentioned above would be a great help in solving San Diego’s immediate payroll issues in 2025, in the long term it simply kicks off next season when Arraez’s salary will increase. for $6MM and may leave the club in the financial crisis they find themselves in now.
If you were in the Padres’ shoes, would you look to deal Arraez elsewhere this winter and replace him at first base, try to extend him, or just sit out the season and take a pay cut elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below!
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