Clay Holmes is one of the bullpen’s top arms in free agency. While Holmes is certainly attracting interest in his relief role, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that several clubs are considering the right-hander as a candidate for a switch. According to Sherman, the Mets are among the teams looking at Holmes as a potential starter.
The bullpen-to-rotation movement has become more prevalent in recent years. Rays have found success with the changing rotation of the likes of Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs again Zack Littell. The Yankees began to stretch Michael King we are off to work in rotation at the end of the 2023 season. King dominated in that role, focused on getting the Padres’ trade back Juan Sotoand turned in an excellent first full season as a starter.
Teams were especially willing to stretch free agent signees back into the rotation. San Diego drove in their signing decision Seth Lugo as a starting point to 2023. A year later, Lugo finished second in Cy Young voting for the Royals. The Braves and Giants took this approach Reynaldo López again Jordan Hicksrespectively, last winter. Hicks exited in the second half, but López turned in a 1.99 earned run average over 25 starts in Atlanta (albeit on the season-ending injured list). The White Sox were promoted Garrett Crochet from a talented reliever with workload concerns to a quality arm that should give them a huge trade advantage this offseason. The Angels have found some success with the sinkerballer rotation José Soriano.
Given the number of hits over the past three to four years, it’s not surprising that teams are interested in continuing to explore. Jeff Hoffmanrighty senior of the free agent class, has already received attention as a starter. There is risk in moving a successful pitcher out of a role in which he is most comfortable, but the upside to a successful rotation move is enormous. Even if a pitcher is on fire as a starter, like AJ Puk done with the Marlins this year, there’s a good chance he can return to the bullpen without too much of an issue.
Holmes, who turns 32 on Opening Day, has no major league experience as a starter. He made four MLB starts, all coming as a rookie with the Pirates in 2018. That’s a small sample of the last six years, so there’s little to glean from it, but Holmes struggled in that appearance (15 innings of 7.80 ERA ball with 13 walks and 12 strikeouts). Like many big league pitchers, Holmes served as a starter for most of his major league career.
Since moving to the bullpen, Holmes has dropped his changeup. His mid-90s sinker is his signature pitch. He has different fastballs (slider around 87 MPH and a sweeper in the 83-84 MPH range) and uses each 20-25% of the time. That’s more promising for a potential rotation move than if it was limited to two pitches. However, he may try to change or hold the divider if he works deep into the games. Finding an effective changeup, which is easier said than done, will give him a different look as he faces left-handed hitters more often on the road.
Holmes has had platoon problems throughout his career. He blocked righty batters to a .209/.295/.293 slash in 843 plate appearances. Lefties hit .250/.359/.346 over 618 trips to the plate. There is a big difference in his strikeout and walk profile. Holmes has the best strikeout and walk numbers (28.9% and 8.7%, respectively) when he plays the team’s best role. His K/BB rates against left-handed hitters (18.9% and 12.9% respectively) are excellent. He was able to avoid home runs against hitters on both sides of the plate, however. He gets plenty of grounders regardless of the opponent, which has worked for him in three and a half seasons at Yankee Stadium.
Overall, Holmes had a solid run as a New York closer. He turned in a 2.69 ERA in 217 2/3 innings as a Yankee. Holmes has picked up 20 saves over the past three years and set a career mark with 30 saves this past season, but his production faltered during the year. Holmes gave up a lead 13 times, five more than any other pitcher. The Yanks rallied from the ninth inning Luke Weaver down the stretch and into the playoffs. Holmes continued to struggle in September before finishing the year with 12 innings of 2.25 ERA ball in the postseason. He scored five goals and ended up not making it to the top in October.
The Mets lost a trio of starters – Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana again Luis Severino – free freelance work. They have started to reverse the change by agreeing to a two-year deal with them Frankie Montas. There is a lot of work to be done as they build around it Kodai Senga again David Peterson. The Mets are eligible for any of the top free agent starters, but baseball president David Stearns has gone the recovery route with the signings of Manaea, Severino and Montas over the past two winters. New York has more than enough cap space to pay to sign a high-level free agent (eg Corbin Burns, Fried Max) and add another launcher from the middle of the market. MLBTR is predicting a three-year, $30MM contract for Holmes, who did not receive a qualifying offer and will not call for any draft compensation.
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