The Marlins got the calls early Jesus Luzardoreports Jon Morosi of MLB Network (X link). Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic write that the Fish are willing to entertain trade talks for the talented southpaw.
On the other hand, a team in full rebuilding like Miami would be open to negotiating for any veteran player. Luzardo is a strong candidate for a trade, however, as the Marlins acquired him while his value was low. His ’24 campaign was nearly derailed by injury. Luzardo went on the injured list in mid-April with elbow inflammation. He returned in May but was suspended again five weeks later due to back problems. That not only took him off the table as a trade candidate, it ended his season. Luzardo was diagnosed with a lower stress reaction and was unable to return to the mound.
No injuries required surgery and Luzardo was able to resume non-pitching baseball activities at the end of the regular season. There’s no indication he won’t be perfect in Spring Training. Still, there’s little doubt that receiving teams will account for the injury risk as they weigh what they’ll offer Miami.
Luzardo has spent a lot of time in IL in his career. He broke his throwing hand in 2021 and missed a good portion of the ’22 season with an arm strain. He also has Tommy John surgery on his medical chart dating back to high school in 2016. He has only surpassed 100 1/3 innings in an MLB season once.
That healthy campaign gave it a lot of fun. Luzardo completed 32 laps in 2023. He pitched 178 2/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball while striking out 28.1% of opposing batters. He averaged nearly 97 MPH on his fastball, missed bats with both his slider and changeup, and limited his walks to a solid 7.4% clip.
That version of Luzardo was a #2 or high-end #3 starter, the kind of pitcher a team could happily plug into their playoff rotation. Luzardo didn’t show that form last year even when he was able to take the mound. He allowed five nine earned runs with a 21.2% strikeout rate in 66 2/3 frames. He’s still posting whiff rates on his second pitches, but his average fastball velocity has dropped to 95.2 MPH and opponents are headed for it.
There is an obvious appeal for competitors to try to buy low. Luzardo is under arbitration for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz earned $6MM. That’s an advantage compared to the free agent market where a repeat candidate is favored Frankie Montas signed for $17MM per year and center rotation arms Yusei Kikuchi again Luis Severino earned more than $20MM per season in three-year deals.
Miami doesn’t have that much urgency to make a low trade. Luzardo won’t make the difference between them contending for a postseason spot or not, but a strong first half could restore his value. If he shows his 2023 form for three months, Luzardo will undoubtedly be the biggest chip of the ’25 deadline. In a best-case scenario, Miami could be looking for more Top 100-type prospects next summer. If he struggles or suffers another major injury, of course, any trade value he currently has will disappear.
It’s especially a matter of risk tolerance for baseball president Peter Bendix and his staff. The Fish have very little on the books for next season, so they are under no financial pressure to move Luzardo. You will be the highest paid member of their modest arbitration division. They are still holding out for $17MM (including the option to buy) to land an outfielder. Avisaíl García. The only other player on a guaranteed contract is the ace Sandy Alcantarawho will make $17MM next year. The Marlins reportedly told Alcantara in August that they had no intention of trading him this offseason.
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