The Phillies may have already made their biggest moves in the offseason. On Friday, the team announced the signing of the outfielder Max Kepler one year, $10MM deal. Kepler’s is the second major league contract Philadelphia has offered this winter; they signed a right-handed reliever Jordan Romano one year, $8.5MM guarantee earlier this month. In a recent press conference, president of baseball Dave Dombrowski suggested that those two signings could be his first additions of the season.
The manager spoke highly of Kepler, praising his choice and ability to hit the ball. According to Baseball Savant, the Phillies are ranked among the bottom half of teams in hitting and hitting in 2024. Apparently, Dombrowski hopes Kepler will help fix that problem. His rushing rate was below average this past year but is usually in the top 25% of the league. Meanwhile, his contact rate has been above average for every season of his career.
Kepler will enter the lineup as a left fielder. Although he has never played the position at the MLB level, Dombrowski has no doubts about his ability to pick it up quickly. He has gone from being an elite defensive lineman throughout his career. More concerning than Kepler’s ability to play lefty is his ability to hit the ball lefty. The left-handed batter had a platoon split in 2024 but has struggled against southpaws in his career. Dombrowski makes it clear that Kepler won’t just be a strong side of the team in Philadelphia. However, POBO points to a fair hit Weston Wilson as someone who could occasionally cover Kepler with a heavy lefty on the mound. Johan Rojas he’s another good hitter on the roster, but he’ll likely be busy covering center field. Brandon Marshanother left-handed outfielder with a well-rounded platoon.
While Dombrowski spoke highly of Kepler, he admitted that his new signing will be down for a year. How true that is is debatable; Kepler’s .682 OPS and 94 wRC+ in 2024 was a big step down from his .816 OPS and 123 wRC+ in 2023, but in line with his .694 OPS and 95 wRC+ from 2021 -22. The version of Kepler shown in 2024 may be closer to his true talents than the version we saw in 2023. Regardless, Dombrowski offered some insight into why the outfielder is regressing in 2024 and why the Phillies hope to improve in 2025. Kepler has been playing through a hamstring injury for most of the 2024 season. However, he underwent surgery this offseason and is on the mend. Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long watched him swing earlier, and Dombrowski suggests Long liked what he saw.
While Kepler and Romano are both looking to return from injury in 2025, Dombrowski wouldn’t portray the signing as a bargain bin. He emphasized that Kepler and Romano are two players the team wants — indeed, he says they’ve liked Kepler for a long time — and it was the players themselves who wanted one-year deals. It appears both are hoping to increase their value and re-enter the free agent market next season.
On the other hand, Dombrowski also denied that he works under strict salary conditions. That said, he has made it clear that he probably doesn’t want to sign any more ineffective agents. If that proves to be true, this would be the first season in Dombrowski’s tenure with the Phillies that he did not sign a nine-player contract. However, Philadelphia’s payroll is still expected to increase by more than $30MM to a record $280MM in 2025 (per RosterResource). That’s because it’s a three-year, $126MM extension Zack Wheeler signed last March will start next year. In other words, one could argue that Dombrowski he did signed a nine-man deal this offseason — he just did it a few months early.
In terms of minor additions to improve the team around the edges, Dombrowski identifies two needs: one position player off the bench and a swingman for the pitching staff. Right now, the Phillies have three bench players who appear to be the keys to the Opening Day roster: the utility infielder. Edmund Sosafourth baseman Rojas, and backup catcher Garrett Stubbs. They can use another option that can play both field and field. While Dombrowski doesn’t rule out the possibility of seeking an outside upgrade, he suggests the Phillies are more likely to stick with their internal candidates. Names Wilson, Is Clemensagain Father Kennedy as three players who can play that role outside of the organization.
Wilson has been MLB’s most successful of the three, albeit in a small sample size, and Dombrowski mentioned his name several times during the presser. The only thing working against his chances of making the Opening Day roster right now is the fact that he still has one option year left. Clemens and Kennedy are out of options, meaning the Phillies could lose them to waivers if they don’t place them on the active roster. On the other hand, Clemens is at a disadvantage as another lefty bat, and Kennedy has limited experience playing the outfield.
Turning to the pitching staff, Dombrowski is more likely to look outside the organization for improvement. Ideally, he would like an arm that could take the fifth spot in the rotation but could also come out of the bullpen if Taijuan Walker He wins the fifth starting job out of camp. That seems to describe such a person Spencer Turnbullthe Phillies signed him for one year and $2MM last season. Turnbull made seven starts and 10 appearances in relief of Philadelphia before suffering a season-ending injury. Jacob Junis would be an interesting option to fill that role in 2025. The 32-year-old righty has made 27 starts and 60 relief appearances over the past three years, posting a 3.80 ERA and 3.62 SIERA.
The Phillies currently have six locks in the Opening Day bullpen. Dombrowski describes Romano, Matt Strahm, José Alvaradoagain Orion Kerkering like the back arms, and he points Tanner Banks again José Ruiz such as the middle innings favored by the team. That leaves two bullpen spots open. One spot would go to the aforementioned swingman. One will likely remain to participate in spring training. The said Dombrowski Max Lazar as one way to win a job. The righty struggled in a few big league games this past year but did well in the minors.
The final point of interest in Dombrowski’s press conference was his brief interview with the NPB phenom Roki Sasaki. The official made it clear that the Phillies would like to enter into further negotiations with Sasaki and his team, but at this time, Philadelphia has not been invited to do so. That’s not entirely surprising — the Phillies have never seemed to be the frontrunner in the Sasaki sweepstakes — but it’s still a disappointing update.
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